5% chance of being poisoned? I don't think so!

[PaulB]

Try to eat a little slower, I'm not the only who think it helps.

Clicking too fast seem to give more poison.

 

 

No, I completely agree. I don't know why, but I seriously think this helps. I tell people to do this too! If we're wrong, at least you and I have reduced our chances of double poisoning since we're paying attention.

 

At any rate, whatever the chance of getting poisoned, it seems about right to me. It's high enough to make us think about toadstools as a danger, but not high enough to deter players from using them completely.

 

 

I agree. When I started trying toadstools I would click fast and got poisoned a lot. It was rather annoying and I got turned off from using them.

Some person told me to eat them more slowly and I noticed that as long as I did not go past the "full" meter then I wouldn't get poisoned. If I ate one extra past full and I would get poisoned. I suggest to eat a toadstool and wait 1 second to eat the next. Do not pass the full mark and see if that helps.

[extrapolation]

but if you spend so long waiting to eat each toad you could just deal with cooldowns on feasts. one reason i like toads is that you can still mix stuff that needs ~30 food points a pop relatively quickly

[Ryokotsusei]

Hah, there's a reason we're able to make poison antidotes.

[RotationZ]

Bones =)

*sigh*

10 k eaten still 0 poison

 

This topic is quite useless however, no pain no gain i'm afraid...

(still selling 20 poison antidote from last no knowledge day)

[Lexi]

Okay.. I have eaten no bones (I have the perk) for about 2 months... Just been on a Toad/Fruit diet.

 

After documenting a few thousand eaten toads, I decided it was best for me to level in pots (to make my own poison antidotes featuring less GC casted out).

 

So here's what I come up with;

 

1; I, myself, get poisoned ROUGHLY 1 out of 20 toads eaten.

The percentage rate is actually 50% since you're gonna get poisoned or you're not. Simple as that.

 

2; I have eaten 108 Toads documented in a row without being poisoned, because of this, I have switched from Bones to Toads when mixing at a storage.

 

3; With my stats, I consider toads free since I harvest them pretty fast. IBones could be free too, BUT I can get toads SO much faster than bones.. Trust me, I have had the time to actually record it.

 

4; Poison Antidotes roughly cost 15gc to make (counting food, harvesting flowers yourself), so if I can eat say 60 toads on one Poison Antidote + 8 Health Essences to restore (which I do ALL THE TIME), my food which used to cost me 120gc (60 bones x2cg each) now costs me 68gc (HEs; 8 x 6= 48. Then 1 PA that's 15gc. 48+15=63gc).

 

I am all about saving gc, because it means whatever I save is whatever I make, so this deal is very nice for me.

 

Now we all know it IS about luck.. cause my mom, Calla, has a VERY bad poison rate, like you do. But some people have gotten 2+ Nexus removal stones, where others (like I) have not gotten 1.

[ville-v]

Astrology should affect getting poisoned. Let us rename "make rare" to "luck" and let it affect more of the stuff

[Lexi]

Astrology should affect getting poisoned. Let us rename "make rare" to "luck" and let it affect more of the stuff

Well before reading this thread, I thought Toads fell under "fail" because it seemed every time my fail was high, that's when I got like 4+++ poisons in a row...

[Zamirah]

Well before reading this thread, I thought Toads fell under "fail" because it seemed every time my fail was high, that's when I got like 4+++ poisons in a row...

I think the same - when few fails, rare poison.

I use fruit and toads for mixing FE/ WE/ cotton - feasting and toads when making mercury/rings/bars.

[Tauren]

1; I, myself, get poisoned ROUGHLY 1 out of 20 toads eaten.

The percentage rate is actually 50% since you're gonna get poisoned or you're not. Simple as that.

wdf

 

I never realised that my lottery rate winnings were 50/50!

No wonder I have never won a big one in my life...

[Aphistolas]

... other than the Hypomyces lactifluorum (I think, anyway) family we have in EL at the moment.

I think one of the most commonly recognized kinds of "toadstools" is Amanita muscaria, or any other member of the Amanita genus. Hypomyces lactifluorum is technically parasitic ascomycete that grows on mushrooms. But Amanita Muscaria are naturally poisonous, and I don't think they have even a 5% chance of being good for you, some of the worlds most toxic mushrooms come from the genus Amanita

 

Good to see another ELer knows her fungi!

[Khalai]

All fungi are edible, but some of them only once

Edited December 27, 2007 by Khalai

[dawench]

LOL I never expected this kind of response.

 

Just to let you know.. I rarely ever get more than double poisoned. As soon as the damage hits the double digits I start eating meat and don't start eating toads again until the damage is down to 5hp. I learned my lesson when I first started eating toads.

 

But to be honest now I am very confused. Officially I have a 5% chance of getting poisoned. Unofficially its 50/50 , either I will get poisoned or I won't. If poisoning is a random event then the amount of toads eaten or the speed at which they are eaten would have no long term effect. It would eventually level out at 5%. How does it really work???

 

Still confuzzled... still eating toads LOL

[Entropy]

But to be honest now I am very confused. Officially I have a 5% chance of getting poisoned. Unofficially its 50/50 , either I will get poisoned or I won't.

 

Lol?

[The_Piper]

Still confuzzled... still eating toads LOL

 

aem... a chance is a chance, a rate is a rate. The random number generator throws out numbers to you, you, you and you and to me too.

 

The rate is always the same, but if you get all the bad numbers (poisoned always while eating toadies), your chance, luck, is bad, but thats your personal problem

 

The rate of getting poisoned is always the same, but you may be just unlucky

 

Piper

[Lexi]

1; I, myself, get poisoned ROUGHLY 1 out of 20 toads eaten.

The percentage rate is actually 50% since you're gonna get poisoned or you're not. Simple as that.

wdf

 

I never realised that my lottery rate winnings were 50/50!

No wonder I have never won a big one in my life...

 

This is EXACTLY why I only buy 1 ticket with each drawing. Whether it's virtual or not.

[Tauren]

This is EXACTLY why I only buy 1 ticket with each drawing. Whether it's virtual or not.

I'm confused by your way of explaining probabilities. You're telling me that there is a 50% chance of being poisoned simply because there are 2 possible events? being poisoned and not being poisoned?

The chance of winning the lottery is a 50% chance because once again there are only 2 possible outcomes? wtf... i hope you realise if you bought a 2nd lottery ticket, no matter what the chance was of winning with one, your chances will be nearly doubled...

 

If the formula says 5% chance of being poisoned, the chance is 5%. You will be lucky to land right on the 5% chance mark, let alone anywhere near it. While you are being hit 20% of the time, somewhere else another player could be getting hit 1% of the time

Live with it

[peino]

Lol, the point is that when it comes down to individual cases at the moment of decision, the odds come down to 50/50. The horse you bet on either will win or it won't. The toad you clicked on either will poison you or it won't. The chances, odds, rates of occurrence, whatever you call them, is just how we hedge our bets, what we base our decisions on ahead of the fact (since you're not allowed to bet on yesterday's horse race). A 5% rate of poisoning ensures that toads will be safe often enough to be useful. But the random number generator ensures that the uncertainty remains for each individual toad you click. 50/50 -- poisonous or not. EDIT: You know, so you can't predict with any accuracy how many toads you can eat before getting poisoned -- i.e. you can't avoid the risk.

 

2nd EDIT: I once tried to commit suicide by toadstool, just to see if I could. That day, I couldn't. I ate until I couldn't eat anymore. Not one poisoning in the bunch. Another day, while mixing with toads, I had to use poison antidote 4 times.

Edited December 28, 2007 by peino

[DarElik]

1; I, myself, get poisoned ROUGHLY 1 out of 20 toads eaten.

The percentage rate is actually 50% since you're gonna get poisoned or you're not. Simple as that.

wdf

 

I never realised that my lottery rate winnings were 50/50!

No wonder I have never won a big one in my life...

 

 

Still confuzzled... still eating toads LOL

 

aem... a chance is a chance, a rate is a rate. The random number generator throws out numbers to you, you, you and you and to me too.

 

The rate is always the same, but if you get all the bad numbers (poisoned always while eating toadies), your chance, luck, is bad, but thats your personal problem

 

The rate of getting poisoned is always the same, but you may be just unlucky

 

Piper

 

 

This is EXACTLY why I only buy 1 ticket with each drawing. Whether it's virtual or not.

I'm confused by your way of explaining probabilities. You're telling me that there is a 50% chance of being poisoned simply because there are 2 possible events? being poisoned and not being poisoned?

The chance of winning the lottery is a 50% chance because once again there are only 2 possible outcomes? wtf... i hope you realise if you bought a 2nd lottery ticket, no matter what the chance was of winning with one, your chances will be nearly doubled...

 

If the formula says 5% chance of being poisoned, the chance is 5%. You will be lucky to land right on the 5% chance mark, let alone anywhere near it. While you are being hit 20% of the time, somewhere else another player could be getting hit 1% of the time

Live with it

 

 

Just to toss it out (basically agreeing with what I quote above): It's a 5% chance of being poisoned per toad you eat, not 5% of how many toads you eat. Each time you consume a toadstool, you have a 5% chance that you're gonna get poisoned. Bummer if you happen to hit the jackpot each time you eat a toad 15 toads in a row.

 

It doesn't care if you've made 1000 of something or 10 of something, each time you eat one, there's a chance of poison, it's not looking at how many you've made or gonna make, eh?

[Tauren]

Lol, the point is that when it comes down to individual cases at the moment of decision, the odds come down to 50/50. The horse you bet on either will win or it won't. The toad you clicked on either will poison you or it won't. The chances, odds, rates of occurrence, whatever you call them, is just how we hedge our bets, what we base our decisions on ahead of the fact (since you're not allowed to bet on yesterday's horse race). A 5% rate of poisoning ensures that toads will be safe often enough to be useful. But the random number generator ensures that the uncertainty remains for each individual toad you click. 50/50 -- poisonous or not.

Just because there are 2 possible events does not mean the odds of being poisoned in the end are 50/50, 50%, 1/2, etc. There is some truth in this, but it is not the correct way to express it.

"There is a 50/50 chance of me being poisoned on the next toad I eat, yet the chance of being poisoned is 5%"

 

May I add once again... wtf

EDIT: You know, so you can't predict with any accuracy how many toads you can eat before getting poisoned -- i.e. you can't avoid the risk..

Predictions contradict probabilities, this is still insufficient to assume the next outcome is going to be one or the other with a 50% chance.

 

Just to toss it out (basically agreeing with what I quote above): It's a 5% chance of being poisoned per toad you eat, not 5% of how many toads you eat. Each time you consume a toadstool, you have a 5% chance that you're gonna get poisoned. Bummer if you happen to hit the jackpot each time you eat a toad 15 toads in a row.

 

It doesn't care if you've made 1000 of something or 10 of something, each time you eat one, there's a chance of poison, it's not looking at how many you've made or gonna make, eh?

 

Yes but with many experiments repeated continuously, the overall amount of times a poisoning occurs should be around 5%.

[dawench]

Just to toss it out (basically agreeing with what I quote above): It's a 5% chance of being poisoned per toad you eat, not 5% of how many toads you eat. Each time you consume a toadstool, you have a 5% chance that you're gonna get poisoned. Bummer if you happen to hit the jackpot each time you eat a toad 15 toads in a row.

 

It doesn't care if you've made 1000 of something or 10 of something, each time you eat one, there's a chance of poison, it's not looking at how many you've made or gonna make, eh?

 

 

NOW I get it!!! See I was thinking the 5% was based on volume not on an individual basis.

 

About my bad luck.... can I get a good luck charm??? Maybe kill a rabbit and keep its foot???? Kill an ogre keep its toes?? How bout some kind of makeable/findable item that changes luck to the good variety? LOL

 

unconfuzzled and a confirmed toadeater.

[Tauren]

NOW I get it!!! See I was thinking the 5% was based on volume not on an individual basis.

That's what the 5% meant all along...

But also by theory of probability, since every toadstool has the same chance of poisoning you, and that chance is 5%, the amount of toads that poison you should be 5% of all the toads you've eaten.

[dawench]

Laws of probability??? In a fantasy world??? No such animal. It is as elusive as a ummm arti cape lol. Yes I know by the laws of probability my toad poisonings should have evened out, but, they haven't. Only one conclusion can be drawn from this. I must immediately change my name to Murphy and sit beside other ppl and curse them with my bad luck. mwa ha ha.. I'm coming to get all you lucky ppl!!!! j/k

 

Funny thing.. serendipity or a change of my mind set.. but I seem to be getting poisoned less. Maybe I just don't mind as much now that I understand how things work.

 

still want a good luck charm and still eating toads

[eagleprince]

All you need are a few lessons in statistics

[FatboyJaxx]

Several new breeds of mushroom would be interesting, other than the Hypomyces lactifluorum (I think, anyway) family we have in EL at the moment.

 

 

I always thought they were Fly Agarics tbh (Amanita Muscaria) ;D

 

EDIT : Ooops, after bothering to read more of the thread I realise someone else already mentioned this.

Edited December 28, 2007 by FatboyJaxx

[Ornitorrinco]

I'm taking a screenshot of this thread.