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A Change in Success since the Server Move?


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#1 milesp

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Posted 28 September 2006 - 04:12 PM

Since the server move I think I'm seeing a trend towards more failures. For me I've noticed it most on the rare items. I make CoL's, and generally have an 80/85% success rate. Since the server move I have a 25% success rate(1/4).

I've seen an alcher lvl 75 fail 2/3 hydro bars, and an ELE with an enrichment stone. All of this within the last 24 hours.

Has anyone else seen increased failures?

#2 Ghrae

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Posted 28 September 2006 - 04:14 PM

Tuesday night I made up 100 Glacmor rings. Typically I get about 93-94%. But I failed 5 in the first 20 and overall ended up with 86%, well below my average.

#3 shallara

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Posted 28 September 2006 - 04:16 PM

Note: this is not about fussing or bitching about fails, but rather posting factual numbers of higher than usual fails since the server move. (fyi)

*eeps, not meant to be directed at anyone, simply a reminder for future posts*

Edited by shallara, 28 September 2006 - 04:22 PM.


#4 Gohan

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Posted 28 September 2006 - 05:02 PM

Ever heard about bad luck? :P

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#5 peeper :)

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Posted 28 September 2006 - 05:27 PM

MN has been much nicer to me since update :P

#6 shallara

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Posted 28 September 2006 - 05:29 PM

Numbers and facts please, thats too vague

Member of my guild got 7 ELE out of 3500 lifes, without the artificer perk

Edited by shallara, 28 September 2006 - 05:30 PM.


#7 milesp

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Posted 28 September 2006 - 05:30 PM

Ever heard about bad luck? :P

-Blee


Ever hear about posting only posts applicable to the topic at hand? Your post has no bearing here. Simply looking to see if there is actually a trend or not. Posts like yours on this thread are irrevelant, unnecessary and break forums rules by not staying on topic.

Please note. I'm not moaning or complaining in this thread. The failure/success rates seem to have been altered since the server move. I'm trying to confirm or disprove this.

#8 Cycloonx

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Posted 28 September 2006 - 05:56 PM

Numbers and facts please, thats too vague

Member of my guild got 7 ELE out of 3500 lifes, without the artificer perk


What's so strange about that? :P I made about 5 once in 3k

Edited by Cycloonx, 28 September 2006 - 05:56 PM.


#9 larrystorch

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Posted 28 September 2006 - 05:56 PM

I've made about 300 steel and 100 bars since the change and have been getting about 10% critical fails, which is average for me. (location: SRI cave)

I've made about 800 fe and have gotten one EFE from that batch. I lost about 3. Except for the EFE, the loss rate is average for me. (location: SRI sto

Random harvesting events SEEM to have increased, but without actually studying the number over a time period, it's purely a subjective observation on my part.

Edit: added locations if it matters

Edited by larrystorch, 29 September 2006 - 01:27 AM.


#10 Happy_G

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Posted 28 September 2006 - 06:39 PM

i got 2 ELE's within 100 LE's but other than that i havent noticed any difference

#11 RallosZek

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Posted 28 September 2006 - 08:46 PM

No noticable change for me. 990+ srs/1000 as usual. Slightly better todays batch, 957 srs, 2 emps in 960 ingreds.

#12 Gohan

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Posted 28 September 2006 - 08:47 PM


Ever heard about bad luck? :P

-Blee


Ever hear about posting only posts applicable to the topic at hand? Your post has no bearing here. Simply looking to see if there is actually a trend or not. Posts like yours on this thread are irrevelant, unnecessary and break forums rules by not staying on topic.

Please note. I'm not moaning or complaining in this thread. The failure/success rates seem to have been altered since the server move. I'm trying to confirm or disprove this.


Fact is, that indeed, my post MAY sound very stupid, but its a fact that this can be related to just having some bad luck. Sometimes I think I seem to fail more then usual also. But thats just me.

AFAIK, there haven't been any changes made in the data of success/failure, so face it, this might just be a case of bad luck.

-Blee

#13 ELVARG

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Posted 28 September 2006 - 08:52 PM

I agree with blee. Even if your average is a bit low, you can't expect to be at that average all the time. :P Nobody's perfect...:(

Edited by ELVARG, 28 September 2006 - 08:52 PM.


#14 The_Knight

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Posted 28 September 2006 - 08:53 PM

Ive seen a bit of alch change, I usually fail 1 out of 10 steel bars (Alch noob)
I have been failing 1-4 now, since update
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#15 Guest_Dragami_*

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Posted 28 September 2006 - 09:05 PM

i got hit by mn 1 time in 2500 silver... broke 0 picks.... the next 2500 silver i got hit 3 times and broke 1 pick thats way below avg

#16 Gohan

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Posted 28 September 2006 - 09:07 PM

I haven't seen a single wall drop on me since over a month. *wubs his tit plate*

-Blee

#17 milesp

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Posted 28 September 2006 - 09:42 PM

We moved to a new server with a new operating system. That means there has been a change. I wasn't going to specifically mention this but maybe I will now. Radu and I discussed this, and he asked me to put up this thread to see if there would be more reports of unusual activity on the new server.

So the point isn't to say X player is having bad luck, or Y player is having good luck and just deal with it, the point is, are people noticing specific differences.

1/4 when it should be 8/10 is a measureable fact.
1/3 when it should be 3/3 is a measureable fact
99/100 when it should be 99/100 is a measureable fact.

That is the point. I can't go out and get the stuff to make 100 CoL's to see if it will even out in the long run, so I'm investigating to see if anyone else see's the trend. The fact of the matter is that NONE of the top crafters qualified to make Crowns had failed 3/4 since they were manuable. It just does not happen.

#18 RallosZek

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Posted 28 September 2006 - 10:07 PM

Erm......I really don't consider 3/100 a measurable fact.

Wouldn't be the first time that I fail 3 in the first 100 HE only to not fail again till the full 600 a run. And sometimes I make 17/20 WS rings then 20/20 for the next 4 batches.

Maybe add it up in a sheet and view it at 1k quantities. And I know that's not possible with CoLs, but then try something a little lower and without blessing or with craft pot to eliminate the level difference.

#19 shallara

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Posted 28 September 2006 - 10:19 PM

What he means is you CAN measure 3/100 whether fail or success, they are concrete numbers.
Success and fail rates are measurable.

The numbers alone say an alcher of 75 should NOT fail 2 hydro bars AND an ELE with enrich stone back to back to back.

The numbers alone say a potioner should NOT get 5 EMP's out of a batch of 500.

Or a manu-er get a modable on his first ever batch of swords.

These are the numbers that are being referred to.

#20 RallosZek

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Posted 28 September 2006 - 10:29 PM

Yes, that can happen and threads like this will 'prove' it, because you get the oddballs posting their weirdness, while the majority is silent.

If you're serious about researching this, then add it all up and get input not only of the abnormalities, but also of the normalities.

FYI: 640/641 HE @ alc 79

I got 5 enr stone I might turn into EFE (not sure yet). Score so far is 8/8. If I decide to do that, I'll post results.

Edited by RallosZek, 28 September 2006 - 10:37 PM.





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