Harvest Med break rate change #3

[bkc56]

In this note I want to report the results of a re-test of harvester medallions with the latest drop in break rate as well as the changes in dung harvesting events with the 3/28/09 update. Brace yourself. As usual I have no shortage of verbiage in my post.

 

 

Dung Harvesting Events

 

The previous negative harvesting events (damage range obtained by looking at log files) for dung included:

• Mother Nature being pissed (10-20)
  
• bee stings (5-10)
  
• teleports (0)
  

Those have been replaced with new events:

• explosions (59)
  
• falling lids (10-30)
  
• Mother taking a dump (16-59)
  

Gloves can now also break. In addition there's a small chance to find an EME, GHP, RoP, or to summon a nasty Mare Bulangiu.

 

Explosions are actually 60 damage reduced by your armor. But since dung harvesters always have at least gloves on, it's going to be 59, or less. I suspect the low end of the range for Mother/Dump may be less than 16, but that's the lowest I've seen.

 

What these changes implies is that the average damage taken for a negative event went from about 7.5 points to about 38.8 (less if you wear armor), or about 5 times more damage (on average) over time. Ouch.

 

Dung is not for the faint-of-heart.

 

Here's the full text for the new negative events:

* While harvesting, bkc56 lit up a match to check the dung level, which caused an explosion worth 00 health points

* While trying to harvest, the outhouse lid fell on bkc56, hitting for 00 health.

* While harvesting some dung, Mother Nature was nearby taking a dump. Unfortunately bkc56 was in the way and got hit for 00 health.

 

Plus the "fun" one:

While bkc56 was harvesting dung, a Mare Bulangiu that was resting in the outhouse wanted to come out. However, the harvester Medallion stopped him!

 

 

Harvester Medallions

 

With the most recent drop in the harvest med break rate, I decided it was again time to do a test run. I decided to use 10 meds until they broke, collect the data and see what it says. Ten may not be a large enough sample to be statistically significant, but it's what I was willing to spend on the project.

 

So what's the bottom line? Here are the average (per med) values over the run of ten. Since in statistics it's often common to drop the lowest/highest values, I also provide the averages for eight meds.

 

Experience average over 10 = 37,109

Experience average over 8 = 29,736

 

GC average over 10 = 748

GC average over 8 = 528

 

The fact that I had two really good runs in this set of 10 (>100K exp each) would seem to be atypical based on my past experience and talking with others. So I'm not completely confident in the above averages.

 

So, are harvest meds break-even yet?

 

At one point Radu said harvest meds were worth 6K gc. That's probably a reasonable value although I've seen them sell for lower and higher values than that over time. Some past forum discussions had typical cost of experience calculated at around 3/gc (for manu) and 5/gc (for crafting). Granted some skills (like harvesting) are higher, and some skills (like ranging or tailoring) are lower. But I still feel that's a reasonable range.

 

So for a harvest med to be break-even, it needs to generate somewhere between 18K (3*6K) and 30K (5*6K) exp per med. My return would imply that the meds may be in the break-even range with the latest break rate. Of course if you do not believe you'll get at least 1 in 10 good meds over time, then the above numbers degrade. Drop the two highest and lowest values and you get an average over 6 = 20,555.

 

So, are harvest meds break-even yet? I think they potentially are, but I also think a test with a larger sample size is needed (done by someone else).

 

It's interesting to note that within one hour of the new mini harvest events being introduced, I broke the last two meds in my test run. Significant? Hard to say.

 

One final note. From looking at logs, the range for gc events seems to be 5-20. The range with the lastest harvest med change is around 75-250. That would make the new multiplier somewhere between 13.5x and 15x. Similarlly, exp is 200-700, with meds 2772-8340, so I'm guessing the new multiplier is about 12x.

 

 

For reference, here's a couple past posts (that themselves reference other posts) on the topic:

 

http://www.eternal-lands.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=40217

http://www.eternal-lands.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=35957

 

 

Here's the raw data from my test run:

 

Medallion 1 - 3/27 = 16596 exp, 390 gc

• experience: 5040, 5928, 5628
  
• gc: 135, 180, 75
  
• stopped: 2
  
• gloves: 3
  
• match: 59, 59
  
• lid: 20, 27, 11
  
• dump: 50, 16, 28
  

Medallion 2 - 3/29 = 6684, 915

• experience: 2772, 3912
  
• gc: 180, 195, 270, 270
  
• stopped: 4
  
• gloves: 2
  
• match: 59, 59, 59, 59, 59, 59
  
• lid: 30, 23, 28, 15, 14, 25, 26, 25, 24, 14
  
• dump: 56, 59
  

Medallion 3 - 3/30 = 0, 0

• dump: 29
  

Medallion 4 - 3/30 = 114552, 3255

• experience: 7392, 8340, 5028, 7872, 2688, 4344, 2904, 6804, 8184, 7452, 4488, 4116, 6432, 7344, 7740, 6264, 6432, 6756, 3972
  
• gc: 135, 120, 150, 120, 180. 225, 255, 195, 195, 210, 270, 180, 195, 255, 240, 90, 240
  
• stopped: 15
  
• gloves: 10
  
• match: 20 @39 each (from here on I wore augmented plus leather helm and boots)
  
• lid: 28, 11, 21, 10, 27, 21, 16, 14, 28, 25, 16, 19, 22, 14, 26, 27, 21, 29, 28, 26, 17, 25, 27, 21, 24, 21
  
• dump: 56, 54, 35, 41, 34, 50, 41, 56, 37, 46, 30, 25, 54, 37, 25, 35, 31, 20, 52, 22, 32, 36, 59, 28, 23, 35, 32, 55, 54, 55, 52, 28, 31
  
• EMP: 1
  

Medallion 5 - 4/2 = 23688, 330

• experience: 4572, 5724, 5304, 8088
  
• gc: 195, 135
  
• stopped: 3
  
• gloves: 1
  
• match: 6 @39 each
  
• lid: 12, 30, 15, 27, 26, 16
  
• dump: 41, 35
  
• Mare Bulangiu: 1
  

Medallion 6 - 4/3 = 133212, 1780

• experience: 6792, 7392, 3336, 7152, 6804, 7860, 7788, 7464, 7656, 8232, 4848, 7800, 3360, 3204, 5952, 7320, 8280, 4872, 4236, 7440, 5424
  
• gc: 270, 205, 195, 135, 225, 255, 195, 195, 105
  
• stopped: 4
  
• gloves: 7
  
• match: 9 @39 each
  
• lid: 20, 17, 10, 17, 24, 20, 24, 30, 16, 25, 28, 21, 15, 18, 20
  
• dump: 51, 45. 37, 59, 26, 43, 56, 55, 36. 28, 52
  

Medallion 7 - 4/7 = 34224, 480

• experience: 4152, 7512, 3480, 8400, 7740, 2940
  
• gc: 90, 165, 225
  
• stopped: 3
  
• gloves: 7
  
• match: 8 @39 each
  
• lid: 20, 14, 10, 20, 12, 29, 11, 19, 23, 15, 23
  
• dump: 46, 55, 36, 38, 41, 36, 56, 49, 28, 40, 22, 25, 35, 59
  
• Ring of Power: 1
  

Megallion 8 - 4/8 = 28592, 330

• experience: 3432, 5820, 5316, 4596, 2688, 6740
  
• gc: 210, 120
  
• stopped: 1
  
• gloves: 7
  
• match: 7 @39 each
  
• lid: 27, 19, 25, 18, 16, 15, 25, 13, 17
  
• dump: 43, 44, 24, 28, 33, 45, 43, 51, 37, 52, 44
  

Medallion 9 - 4/9 = 13548, 0

• mini-event update happened on this medallion.
  
• experience: 6360, 3708, 3480
  
• stopped: 1
  
• lid: 21, 26
  
• mini-coin: 4, 6
  
• mini-exp: 10, 22, 18, 22
  

Medallion 10 - 4/9 = 0, 0

• gloves: 1
  
• match: 1 @39 each
  
• lid: 26
  
• dump: 33, 23
  
• mini-coin: 4, 6
  
• mini-exp: 30, 26, 30
  

[Silvatica]

Thanks for the test.

 

It seams that Entropy has made a very good change of the harvester medallion that make it useable for high level harvesters who can afford it and don't want get a MB in their outhouse.

[Raistlin]

One final note. From looking at logs, the range for gc events seems to be 5-20. The range with the lastest harvest med change is around 75-250. That would make the new multiplier somewhere between 13.5x and 15x. Similarlly, exp is 200-700, with meds 2772-8340, so I'm guessing the new multiplier is about 12x.

 

Little addition:

Since I got a gold bag containing 300gc, the multiplier seems to be 15x

[bkc56]

Little addition: Since I got a gold bag containing 300gc, the multiplier seems to be 15x

Thank you!! I suspected it was 15x but just didn't have the data to support that. Now we know.

[XenaMT]

and I have had an MN dump for 60

[boognish]

Thank you for sharing your data. It seems the medallions are better balanced now.

[The_Piper]

Well, maybe i am only unlucky or some crafters bribed radu >.<

 

The first harv med i used after the changes stayed quite long, 4 or 5 days, so i was quite happy and bought some more.

 

But now i broke 5 harv meds during 2 days, which seems to be a even more worse rate than before the change

 

Piper

 

Edit: 6 now >.<

Edited April 16, 2009 by The_Piper

[Aphistolas]

Thanks for the data collection and organisation, bkc. Very nicely presented and interpreted too.

 

I think I'll go buy a Harvester Medallion now, Harvest 57 has been escaping me lately.

[Ermabwed]

Little addition: Since I got a gold bag containing 300gc, the multiplier seems to be 15x

Thank you!! I suspected it was 15x but just didn't have the data to support that. Now we know.

I've got a blessing of 2916, that means the multiplier for "regular" blessings is still 12, whereas the one bag of 285 gold coins so far today at least doesn't contradict the 15 as multiplier for bags of gold.

[RallosZek]

sed -ne 's,^\[[0-9][0-9]:[0-9][0-9]:[0-9][0-9]\] RallosZek was blessed by the Queen of Nature with \([0-9][0-9][0-9][0-9]\).*$,\1,p' .elc/main/chat_log.txt|awk 'BEGIN { total=0; } { total += $1 } END { print total; }'
247936

sed -ne 's,^\[[0-9][0-9]:[0-9][0-9]:[0-9][0-9]\] RallosZek found a bag of gold\, getting \([0-9][0-9][0-9]\).*$,\1,p' .elc/main/chat_log.txt|awk 'BEGIN { total=0; } { total += $1 } END { print total; }'
31065

sed -ne 's,^\[[0-9][0-9]:[0-9][0-9]:[0-9][0-9]\] RallosZek found a bag of gold\, getting \([3-9][0-9]\) .*$,\1,p' .elc/main/chat_log.txt|awk 'BEGIN { total=0; } { total += $1 } END { print total; }'
2240

sed -ne "/^\[[0-9][0-9]:[0-9][0-9]:[0-9][0-9]\] Mother Nature decided to destroy RallosZek's/p" .elc/main/chat_log.txt|wc -l
  34

 

(247936*11/12*0.25+30965*14/15+2240*14/15)-(34*6750) = -141690

 

What's that?

11/12*0.25 = 12 multiplier, so 11/12 more exp at 0.25gc per exp (4exp/gc)

14/15 = coin multiplier

34*6750 = 34 meds at current average market price

-141690 = 141k gc lost

 

That's not quite break even, but astro plays a big part. I'd say the breakrate modifier of astro needs adjusting to the positive. With full green harv/degrade astro I break more meds, because I get more events. Not "just a few more", a lot more. 4 in an hour being the most memorable, but minimum 3 if I harv the entire period.

Edited October 10, 2009 by RallosZek