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AitorTillas

Day of Recycling

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Hi there,

 

like many of the players in game, Day of Recycling is one of the days i most like. I use this day mostly to mix the hydro bars, and some other expensive stuff.

 

Based on the information on mercator, it has not ocurred such a day in the last 83 days.

Based on the information on the CEL site, Day of Recycling has a 2.5% of probability to happend....

 

Making easy maths, comes to me that in the last 83 days (RL) there have been 252 Eternal lands days, what means ~6-7 Days of Recycling, but none of them happend.

 

That makes me question..... can it be that is broken? I know some time ago happend with the day of more grief, can be something similar?

 

Thx for All

AitorTillas

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CEL site is just taking the ENTIRE HISTORY of known #days, getting a total count and then figuring out what is the percentage of a particular day from that data. It is not the actual percentage that Entropy sets and it can not determine if a #day was artifically created (by player stones). Sorry, but that piece of "data" is a novelty at best.

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I really hope it comes soon again, I wait for ages now. I know it's a very popular day.

If I am not mistaken the last day of recycling happened about half a year ago.

 

I know it's a very powerful day and if happening too often it will mess up balance, but

I think over half a year now is enough waiting time ;)

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Keep in mind that when people use day stones to force a specific day, a side effect is it appearing as if the chances for other days is reduced since using a stone might have prevented a random day from appearing. So the more you use day stones, the less often you will see the other days!

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Keep in mind that when people use day stones to force a specific day, a side effect is it appearing as if the chances for other days is reduced since using a stone might have prevented a random day from appearing. So the more you use day stones, the less often you will see the other days!

 

As far as i undestand the Day stones, you can only use them on normal days, so if NO special day has been Triggered by the server.

If that is as i undestand it, the use of a stone should not have an influence on the computing of if a day is special or not, because it happends before.

 

Another point would be that the server takes into consideration the ammount of special days that have happend in last times to determine if a day is special or not. Even if that would be the case, we stil see "many" of random days to apear, like solar flares right now, or More grief yesterday, or some others.

 

My point here, is that seems to be that the Server does not take into consideration the Recycling day, when it has to decide which of the special day is going to be

 

Edit: typos (some of them :))

Edited by AitorTillas

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I have seens 3 recycling days in the time that I started actively playing again, which is approximately 1 month.

 

Therefor i regulary miss every single Suntzu day.

 

 

It seems to be a timezone issue. The special day is fine.

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Keep in mind that when people use day stones to force a specific day, a side effect is it appearing as if the chances for other days is reduced since using a stone might have prevented a random day from appearing. So the more you use day stones, the less often you will see the other days!

 

As far as i undestand the Day stones, you can only use them on normal days, so if NO special day has been Triggered by the server.

If that is as i undestand it, the use of a stone should not have an influence on the computing of if a day is special or not, because it happends before.

 

Another point would be that the server takes into consideration the ammount of special days that have happend in last times to determine if a day is special or not. Even if that would be the case, we stil see "many" of random days to apear, like solar flares right now, or More grief yesterday, or some others.

 

My point here, is that seems to be that the Server does not take into consideration the Recycling day, when it has to decide which of the special day is going to be

 

Edit: typos (some of them :))

Correct Day stones make it appear as if the day happens less often, it's the Quest that requests a specific day before the change that makes it actually happen less often.

 

I doubt that the Server will be changed to make things happen at specific %'s, because at that point it stops being random. you would be able to start predicting what day would come upby gathering the stats of the 'random' days. Having random days means that sometimes they will be far apart and other times it may happen twice in a row which is what can make it unpredictable and more fun!

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I think we are missundestanding each other.

 

I ment the server tracks if it was a Special day, any of them, not a specific one.

 

As to say: If the special day probability is 30%, if there where 2 days in a row that where special days, this probability will dro pto 20% (Example numbers).

 

Anyway, i dont think this is how is implemented. My guess go that first the server checks if is a special day (lets say 30%), and then if YES, check which special day it should be (with each special day assigned a %)

 

Anyway, it seems that the day of recycling is broken, or it has a too low probability. That is what my question was about:

if is realy a bug? are we having bad luck? or is ment to be like this?

 

I have seens 3 recycling days in the time that I started actively playing again, which is approximately 1 month.

 

Therefor i regulary miss every single Suntzu day.

 

 

It seems to be a timezone issue. The special day is fine.

 

Recycling or Reconstruction?

I Can asure almost without doubts that there was no Recycling days in at least 2 months.

I Agree it was Reconstruction days (1,2 or 3, dunno for sure)

 

 

Thx for the interest

AitorTillas

Edited by AitorTillas

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Keep in mind also that as more types of days are added, you can expect that the chance for any specific day happening is also reduced. Since we have about 40 different random days available, that means that only about a 2.5% chance of a day happening is about right (+/- depending on any adjustments Entropy has made). Then add in days that have been forced by quests or day stones, and the apparent chance is now even lower.

 

This would place the CEL 2.5% chance as being too high since the apparent chance will be lower. Plus, using random numbers means the next two could both be tomorrow, or it may be over a year.

 

I think you'll find the Entropy will say that it's not broken and that just how the randomness has been working out.

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I Only took the numbers of CEL site as a reference. Is also clear that are just an User Interpretation of what could be the randoms %

 

A Reply in this form from Entropy, would also be valid. That would mean that that is the Expected behabior of the system, and im not doing a change request or anything. I just wanted to ask why is like this, and if is all correct, well is again a design decision made by Entropy

 

Anyway Learner, thx for clearing some of the points, and lets see how that comes out

AitorTillas

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There are 39 special days, each having an equal possibility to happen. So ~2.5% probability for a day to happen IF there is a special day.

The probability for a special day to happen is 1/4 for each game day (so 1 every 24 hours).

Therefore, the probability for a specific day to happen is 2.5/4=~0.6% for every 6 hours.

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So, then its just truth that we are having bad luck.

 

Well, at some point statistics show up to be the biggest lie in the world:

Put your head in the fridge, your feet in the hoven, and statistics says that your average temperature is just great

 

Thx for the Reply Entropy, now is just a question of waiting

AitorTillas

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Guys focus on complete the global quests. Iirc one Of the rewards is more % to good special days :)

 

Really? I didnt see this one yet

I only remember 3 different rewards:

-Less food cost while mixing

-Less Wait time for dailys

-Less mini events

 

I may be wrong but

 

Edit: Anyway, focus on the Global quest is also a good idea. Ill gladly join

Edited by AitorTillas

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Guys focus on complete the global quests. Iirc one Of the rewards is more % to good special days :)

Notice: Your definition of a good day may not match the server's definition of a good day.

;)

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