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Kaddy

Daily Cooldown Reducer fail rate.

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Can someone please explain me the possibility of 9x dcr fails? It is said to be %50. Makes it less than %0,2, less than 2 in 1000 fucking times. 

 

Please get your rates straight, it is stupid. 

 

 

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13 fails in a row should have a probablility of about 1:8000 (to be exact 1:8192) . That you don't hear of other series like that is due to two factors (at least)

- not every one wants to spend that many cooldown reducers, so many stop earlier (after 2, 3, 4?)

- incomplete reporting: not every one reports failures, even in improbable series. (And no one reports succes when needing  only 1 or 2 reducers.)

 

So, yes, 13 fails in a row is bad luck, but over time not that surprising (cooldown reducers came in game before 2013). And most certainly no reason to assume a bug, given how exceptional it appears to be.

Edited by revi

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:hiya:

 

My record is... well... it's more than 13.

I seem to remember Katakil having an impressive 23(or 24?) fails in a row.

 

I don't use them any more.

 

 

:medieval:

 

 

 

P.S.

 

On ‎06‎/‎08‎/‎2018 at 2:25 AM, dragon_killer said:

Don't spam them wait ned minute or so

 

"Time elapsed" has absolutely nothing at all to do with "statistical probability".

Lul.

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On 8/8/2018 at 5:54 PM, FairyTail said:

"Time elapsed" has absolutely nothing at all to do with "statistical probability".

Lul.

 

There are no true random numbers in computers only psuedo random numbers.

If the seed basis included time as factor it is certainly possible that it could affect it but in that case a well designed game would use factor such as cooldown to prevent it.

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radu posted the code:

Quote

[radu @ 6]: if(what_random_day==RD_DAY_OF_SUN_TZU) { if(my_rand(100)<50)

 

Since I have no idea what my_rand does, it is impossible to know if time (or astrology) has any impact. 

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On 8/9/2018 at 5:13 AM, saxum said:

 

There are no true random numbers in computers only psuedo random numbers.

If the seed basis included time as factor it is certainly possible that it could affect it but in that case a well designed game would use factor such as cooldown to prevent it.

 

That's not really true. Modern OSes will use multiple things to seed the random number generator, such as keyboard and mouse input, temperature from different sensors and so on. Furthermore, in a multiplayer game that's not an issue, because between two random calls for your items there are thousands of other random calls from other players, monsters, and different other subsystems. There is a lot of entropy from the human players.

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