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yethq

Skeptic, Astro, Luck....what forces determine chance?

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Two days ago a few of us were up during a slow time of day (wee hours for USA). We were talking on a very peaceful channel 6 and got on the subject of astro and skeptic. One suggestion was that the Skeptic perk only really affected fighters, as it affected only the skills pertaining to fighting, such a/d and magic. However, others suggested, as Radu clarified later in a PM to PaulB (waitint for permission to afixto end of this post) that skeptic perk acts on all forms of astro and is not limited to fighting.

However, one question remains that I would like an answer to. I suggested, not from my own idea but from the idea of the Late Graywolf of BoC guild, who had been a dear friend of mine, that astro is NOT the only deciding factor or force at play in the chance failure or success rate of players on any given day or time. He suggested that rather, besides astro there was a second force he called Luck which he believed was coded into game as well and influenced our chance of failure or success perhaps on a differnet pattern of cycle, or perhaps generated somewhat randomly on the computer; but that it did change back and forth and players would experience therefore highs and lows in performance, failure, success, etc. They would have good days and bad days, some really good days, some really bad, some fairly good some fairly bad and some just ordinarily mediocre.

This seems to be the experience at least of many people who take skeptic. There bad days are not as bad perhaps as without skeptic, but they do have these variables. Is is imagined? or is it real? This I would like an answer to if possible.

It would be really swell if someone knowledgable and not just guessing would answer athoritatively, perhaps even 'teh_g-d' himself.

 

thank you and others may feel free to express your experiences but please unless you know for certain clarify your responses as experiences and not the known truth. Please allow someone who truly knows answer athoritatively.

 

 

Edited by yethq

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After speaking with radu in PM I got some firm answers on the topic at hand.

 

For starters, there was no system in place before astro that was astro like as some have stated. There was talk that before astro was put into the game that there was some system that varied by the hour instead of how astro works now. This is not true. This iinformation came from radu himself.

 

Also, there were a few people saying that astro was for fighters only and that harvesters/mixers still had astro effects. This is also not true. Anyone who has skeptic is skeptic completely. Not just a/d and magic as some stated in channel 6 earlier in the week.

 

I explained to radu about the conversation in 6 and he agreed that the people stating such were incorrect. Skeptic removes all astro effects from every category.

 

Thanks to radu for clearing this up.

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Thank you Paulb, now probably is not necessary to afix the text unless people want it, if so I do have it save.

But my question still remains which is, is there any ohter operating code that could be explained such as LUCK, some force playing on the chance success and failure of activities of eternal lands characters besides ASTRO. I do not pretend to know, but I do know from my own experiences with ASTRO, which I had for a number of years but had removed because of all this, that I had considerable variance in success/failure rate on a {time} by {time} basis....what causes the varience....Is it purely random chance, or is there another force at work.

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But my question still remains which is, is there any ohter operating code that could be explained such as LUCK, some force playing on the chance success and failure of activities of eternal lands characters besides ASTRO

 

I usually call it statistics or RNG.

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Also would like to add the conversation in 6 so those who were not here understand the conversation which brought this topic up.

I added bold to key points in question.

[02:22:19] [PaulB @ 6]: It's hard to break down the rates with astro. And ouch
[02:22:37] [PaulB @ 6]: I'm skeptic so it should be a steady amount.
[02:22:45] [YethQ @ 6]: no idea
[02:23:20] [YethQ @ 6]: I am mostly joking, I am eng L78 dont break too many hammers so much
[02:23:37] [PaulB @ 6]: :P
[02:23:46] [YethQ @ 6]: but I used to feel like I broke more htan I made
[02:24:30] [YethQ @ 6]: and I dont lie, I have perfected the art of the yarn
[02:24:43] [PaulB @ 6]: I would guess that for the testing to be accurate my breaks should be cut in half after testing 50K with harv med on. Though I expect some variable
[02:24:50] [PaulB @ 6]: Shouldn't be too much though.
[02:25:00] [Marty @ 6]: nothing worse than facts ruining a good yarn
[02:25:02] [YethQ @ 6]: Is good idea paul
[02:25:43] [alex_s @ 6]: may be there is additional hidden astro ?
[02:25:47] [YethQ @ 6]: lol @ marty
[02:25:57] [PaulB @ 6]: I'm skeptic.
[02:26:09] [PaulB @ guild]: She was joking :P
[02:26:09] [YethQ @ 6]: I was
[02:26:25] [YethQ @ 6]: but started wantingto make high end craft stuff
[02:26:29] [YethQ @ 6]: eng
[02:26:38] [Maxine @ 6]: skeptic doesnt neccesarily mean you dont have astro for harvesting, it only negates astro for magic and a/d
[02:27:13] [YethQ @ 6]: really interesting, but you cant test any astro
[02:27:15] [Maxine @ 6]: as far as I can tell (from reports from others) skeptics still have harvesting and manu astro
[02:27:42] [PaulB @ 6]: "The astrology doesn't appy to you: no bonuses, no penalties." Doesn't say just magic and a/d
[[02:27:52] [YethQ @ 6]: but you cannt tell if you are going to have high fail rate cause you cant test it
[02:27:54] [Maxine @ 6]: yep, so you cant test it
[02:28:07] [PaulB @ 6]: I'm not testing harvesting
[02:28:24] [Maxine @ 6]: make rare and fail too PaulB
[02:28:27] [steelLorD @ 6]: It uses the old system, before astro. Ups and downs occurred over a matter of hours instead of 48 hour cycles
[02:29:17] [steelLorD @ 6]: I've noticed times when paul would complain that for a few hours he wouldn't get any emps
[02:29:24] [steelLorD @ 6]: then times when he would get an emp every 500 srs
[02:29:49] [YethQ @ 6]: my ping not a lot dif but lag is much less
[02:30:14] [Maxine @ 6]: Interesting hypothesis SteelLorD, I can barely remember the times before astro, was total noob then
[02:30:58] [PaulB @ 6]: That would only be true if radu left the code in for the old astrology. I'm pretty sure he removed that code to add the new astrology system
[02:31:21] [PaulB @ 6]: But that's something radu would have to confirm.
[02:31:25] [steelLorD @ 6]: I remember very well. there was a time of the day i'd harvest and a time i would mix. if i deviated at all, i didn't get any EFEs lol
[02:32:18] [steelLorD @ 6]: well there was never an "old astrology". skeptic is just the old system.
[02:32:22] [alex_s @ 6]: he is right
[02:32:40] [PaulB @ 6]: And if there was 2 seperate astrology systems in EL, how are they affected by the skeptic perk.
[02:32:44] [alex_s @ 6]: i remember that time too
[02:33:28] [alex_s @ 6]: new astro system affected
[02:33:33] [PaulB @ 6]: And where did you get that information that skeptic was the old astro system? I didn't see anything stating that in any forum
[02:34:14] [steelLorD @ 6]: wow paul lol Astro is the new system, taking skeptic removes astro. ergo you're on the old system
[02:34:56] [PaulB @ 6]: And how do you know if the old code for astro wasn't removed to impliment the new code? It's not something that's just natural. There is a code for it.
[02:35:13] [steelLorD @ 6]: well there was no astro before astro
[02:35:27] [alex_s @ 6]: some my alt was sceptic ))))
[02:35:27] [PaulB @ 6]: There was. Just not as the current system.
[02:35:34] [steelLorD @ 6]: there wasn't astro
[02:36:51] [YethQ @ 6]: well there would not have been any astro til a script was made, when it was made I dontknow
[02:37:04] [steelLorD @ 6]: astro didn't exist till like 2007. I remember testing it when he first made it. we had to type #astrology to see our indicators
[02:37:27] [steelLorD @ 6]: before there were stones
[02:37:31] [YethQ @ 6]: I came in 2007
[02:37:44] [alex_s @ 6]: i came in 2004
[02:37:50] [YethQ @ 6]: I think I maybe wrong, maybe 2008 but close
[02:38:23] [PaulB @ 6]: So then what old system are you talking about?
[02:39:13] [steelLorD @ 6]: There was no "name" for the old system paul.
[02:39:58] [steelLorD @ 6]: it was just a chaotic system of ups and downs until radu made asrology and organized it into 48 hour cycles governed by planet movements

[02:40:20] [PaulB @ 6]: Yes but my point is.... If there was a system in place that fluxuated like a "astro" system, then how do you know that code wasn't removed?
[02:40:21] [steelLorD @ 6]: You take skeptic and you are no longer governed by the movement of the planets
[02:40:29] [YethQ @ 6]: gee no wonder he calls himself teh god, eek
[02:40:49] [steelLorD @ 6]: ok nvm. i'm going back to bed....
[02:41:16] [Desey @ 6]: Have a good night.
[02:41:37] [YethQ @ 6]: nn
[02:43:13] [revi @ 6]: iirc skeptic was introduced shortly after astro came in game, as there were a number of players complaining about the astro
[02:43:27] [Maxine @ 6]: nini SteelLorD
[02:44:12] [alex_s @ 6]: alex_s found a Rostogol Stone
[02:44:30] [PaulB @ 6]: Yea I rememer that. But it's being said that before astro was put into th game there was a system that fluxuated by the hour rather than 48 hour cycles.
[02:44:32] [PaulB @ 6]: gratz alex.
[02:44:33] [YethQ @ 6]: I took skeptic and I found Maxine's statement to be the case, I had astro just oculd not test it so got it removed
[02:45:05] [YethQ @ 6]: is only really good for fighters imo
[02:45:29] [PaulB @ 6]: Not true :P I don't like breaking more harv meds.
[02:46:08] [YethQ @ 6]: I kept breaking mine, I kept saying my skeptic waz broken lol
[02:46:44] [YethQ @ 6]: who knows maybe it was lol
[02:46:51] [PaulB @ 6]: In 4 months I harvested 1,235,844 items and broke 43 harv meds. That's not too bad
[02:47:24] [YethQ @ 6]: that is good, I just dont use them except for flowers and when I am realy waning to pick fast
[02:47:49] [YethQ @ 6]: I make them tho
[02:47:56] [Marty @ 6]: 3 broke for 1863551
[02:48:14] [YethQ @ 6]: wow
[02:48:26] [PaulB @ 6]: hax
[02:48:37] [YethQ @ 6]: hmmmm, 1 for 2 errr
[02:48:44] [Marty @ 6]: rarely use thenm :P
[02:49:20] [Maxine @ 6]: skeptic is for fighters only
[02:49:57] [PaulB @ 6]: And why is that?
[02:50:09] [PaulB @ 6]: Harvesters don't like breaking more stuff :P
[02:50:44] [YethQ @ 6]: she said it earlier, they still get astro for other areas, manu and something elsem maybe she repeat
[02:51:05] [PaulB @ 6]: That isn't in the description for the perk.
[02:51:10] [Maxine @ 6]: As far as i can tell, skeptic only affects a/d and magic, not any manufacturing or harvesting related astro
[02:51:15] [PaulB @ 6]: It says no bonuses or penalties.
[02:51:44] [Maxine @ 6]: degrade astro might be neutralised to, but that doesnt affect breakages in harvesting, that is just harvesting astro (event rate)
[02:52:15] [Maxine @ 6]: I know what the perk description says
[02:52:15] [YethQ @ 6]: now that makes sense
[02:52:34] [PaulB @ 6]: I would think that anything astro related would be null with skeptic perk. That includes harvesting/mixing/etc. Not just a/d magic
[02:53:24] [YethQ @ 6]: I took it and had really good days and really bad days for mixing, so I quit it, so I tend to feel that for me what Maxine says makes sense
[02:53:30] [Maxine @ 6]: Thats what I thought too, and I didnt take the perk, but know people that did and they have reported that they still observe differences in other astro
[02:54:13] [YethQ @ 6]: one person told me that there are two kinds of astro and skeptic only negates one of them
[02:54:15] [Maxine @ 6]: the perk was introduced in response to complains from fighters that didnt like astro
[02:55:52] [YethQ @ 6]: wehn I had skeptic I had to go mix a bunch of bars before I tried to mix high end stuff to see how my mixing was going to be
[02:55:53] [Maxine @ 6]: SteelLord's comment might be it, that skeptics have 'old' (quicker changing) astro. No way to check that
[02:56:31] [Maxine @ 6]: except what YethQ just said :)
[02:57:11] [Maxine @ 6]: when a skeptic pro fails FE's, I think you will become a believer ;)
Hourly time-stamp: log continued at 2014-03-19 03:00:35 localtime (Eastern Daylight Time)
[03:00:38] [Roguepeach @ 6]: just like to way in here on skeptic and astro read the wiki description its all there
[03:02:45] [PaulB @ 6]: Going from that it also leads one to believe that skeptic stops astro for a/d/crit to hit and damage/acc/magic/fail when mixing/rare items mixing/harv events
[03:02:48] [Maxine @ 6]: what in the wiki describes the issue we are talking about? The wiki just gives the same info as the official perk description
[03:03:16] [PaulB @ 6]: And would the official perk description be misleading then? Or accurate?
[03:03:16] [Maxine @ 6]: yes Paul, the wiki just gives the official version
[03:04:04] [YethQ @ 6]: what it is says it is compared to what peoples real experiences with it are dif
[03:05:39] [PaulB @ 6]: Well let's say M&P break 1/300 for arguments sake. You could still break more than 1 in 300 but that doesn't mean you're being affected by astro.
[03:05:44] [YethQ @ 6]: my experiences mainly mixing, I didnt notice the breakage, was less concerned with it, my mixing was H-ll with skeptic
[03:07:12] [Maxine @ 6]: PaulB, I know about statistics and randomness, I think I have enough statistics to average out random fluctuations
[03:07:18] [YethQ @ 6]: if is persistanly occuring then you must being affected by something so what is affecting hte skeptic
[03:07:54] [PaulB @ 6]: Also the astro-like system talked about earlier before astro was put in place didn't get there through osmosis. It would have been something coded.
[03:08:09] [PaulB @ 6]: I'm more wondering if that code was removed when astrology was implimented.
[03:08:17] [YethQ @ 6]: all astro must be coded
[03:08:39] [PaulB @ 6]: I'm talking about the system they mentioned that was here before astro.
[03:08:55] [YethQ @ 6]: any system must be coded too
[03:09:05] [PaulB @ 6]: Yes, that's my point :P
[03:09:21] [YethQ @ 6]: great minds think alike
[03:09:36] [YethQ @ 6]: and sometimes disagree too
[03:09:39] [PaulB @ 6]: When astrology was added, was that old code removed is the queestion.
[03:09:42] [YethQ @ 6]: lol
[03:10:10] [Maxine @ 6]: I doubt that was removed, best person to ask would be Learner and not radu :

 

 

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I am skeptic and the only places where I see variation are degrade and a/d. There are bad cycles and good cycles.

Mixing is pretty much constant. I took skeptic when I was power leveling crafting and I needed the stability and I felt it helped a lot.

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I have long suspected that whatever code generates the indicator data is not identical to the code that's actually used for determining chances, or uses a different source for where you should be in the cycle. Might just be all in my head, but my actual harv astro seems to lag about 12 hrs behind the indicated astro (That is, I get relatively few events when my astro is indicated full green, but when it's passing 0 on the way back down, look out harvmed, I'm getting tele'd all over the place and stung by bees every 20 seconds). It's repeatable and has been this way for months.

 

Z

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I have always noticed (even before astro) that there were "cycles" by which things occurred in the game. Harvesting at certain times of day or mixing would produce astro-like event clusters. ie, I could mix 15k FEs and not get a single EFE but at a specific time of day I would get an EFE every 4k FEs.
I believe that the cause of this is due to how the server issues out it's odds.It sees that an FE is being created and the math is done to determine whether it's a success or failure due to the user's level (or any modifiers attached like potions). Beyond this it doesn't care "who" is making the FE, if a success is true, the server determines then if it's an FE or EFE.
The more people that are on making FEs, the greater the chances of getting an EFE. Thus the "cycles" we notice as Skeptic or for those of us who were here before Astro, are nothing more than the nature of the game. ie How many other people are on doing the same thing. During a period of time when a lot of people are on making FEs, it may appear as though you have some type of positive astro because your chances of making a rare is greater when more FEs are being created in the game.

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I have long suspected that whatever code generates the indicator data is not identical to the code that's actually used for determining chances, or uses a different source for where you should be in the cycle. Might just be all in my head, but my actual harv astro seems to lag about 12 hrs behind the indicated astro (That is, I get relatively few events when my astro is indicated full green, but when it's passing 0 on the way back down, look out harvmed, I'm getting tele'd all over the place and stung by bees every 20 seconds). It's repeatable and has been this way for months.

 

Z

Yup I noticed the other day when I did 10k LEs during red astro I got 5 ELEs.

Yesterday I tried doing ~3k LEs with Astro maxed in the green and didn't get squat. (using artificer) And it always seems best right around 0

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I have skeptic... I notice the luck factor when harvesting... Sometimes many random events occur..

 

I made adjustments due to my use of Harv Med... with skeptic I will remove the harvester med for 10 minutes and the cycle appears to change and I will use the Harv Med again.. when astro was in play, I would have to wait to the start of a new day to see any real change as not to destroy the Harv Med..

 

The idea that Enriched, Special items, harv stones is set globally makes sense.. So the more people harvesting or mixing the chance of you creating a enriched or special item should increase....

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... During a period of time when a lot of people are on making FEs, it may appear as though you have some type of positive astro because your chances of making a rare is greater when more FEs are being created in the game.

... The idea that Enriched, Special items, harv stones is set globally makes sense.. So the more people harvesting or mixing the chance of you creating a enriched or special item should increase....

Can someone explain the math or logic behind this statement, it makes no sense to me from a probability point of view.

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... During a period of time when a lot of people are on making FEs, it may appear as though you have some type of positive astro because your chances of making a rare is greater when more FEs are being created in the game.

... The idea that Enriched, Special items, harv stones is set globally makes sense.. So the more people harvesting or mixing the chance of you creating a enriched or special item should increase....

Can someone explain the math or logic behind this statement, it makes no sense to me from a probability point of view.

 

Their logic for their statement is clear as day. If that's how it works is up for speculation but the logic in their argument is there in black and white. I bold it for you.

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... During a period of time when a lot of people are on making FEs, it may appear as though you have some type of positive astro because your chances of making a rare is greater when more FEs are being created in the game.

... The idea that Enriched, Special items, harv stones is set globally makes sense.. So the more people harvesting or mixing the chance of you creating a enriched or special item should increase....

Can someone explain the math or logic behind this statement, it makes no sense to me from a probability point of view.

 

The client doesn't decide if you get a rare item or if you trigger an event. The server decides that. If it were up to the client, people would be hacking their clients and getting free EFEs. It's a single function in the server programming that is called whenever a user creates something.

Your client tells the server "Ok I just made an FE!"

The server says "hold on, I'll check to see if it was successful, and if so, did you make a rare!"

Then the server replies "ok you successfully made an FE!"

The more times that function is triggered the better your chances are that you'll get a return "ZOMG you got an EFE dude!"

The server doesn't check to see "oh hey who are you? ok let me check your private probability rate".

It's just a simple function.

Astro changed that by adding a personal modifier, but skeptic removes astro so you are back to simply asking the server for a probability with 0 modifier.

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Actually, the client tells the server "Please try to make an FE", the server decides if you can or not, then decides if you can get an EFE or not.

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So the chances on an EFE are decided per individual based on their astro and possibly some global modifier. If they are skeptic, their individual astro modifier is always the same.

This means that it makes no difference whatsoever if I am the only person making FE-s or if the whole community is making them.

The thing I have a mathematical (probability) problem with is the part of the statement that claims that

your chances of making a rare is greater when more FEs are being created in the game

, since your chances should be completely independent of what someone else does.

However, if there are global modifiers that affect everyone, including skeptics, there might be times when more people find stones and/or make enriched items, regardless of their personal astro. Again in this latter case, everybody's chances are increased, but it doesn't matter if I am the only one logged on or if there are 200 people mixing.

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So the chances on an EFE are decided per individual based on their astro and possibly some global modifier. If they are skeptic, their individual astro modifier is always the same.

This means that it makes no difference whatsoever if I am the only person making FE-s or if the whole community is making them.

The thing I have a mathematical (probability) problem with is the part of the statement that claims that

your chances of making a rare is greater when more FEs are being created in the game

, since your chances should be completely independent of what someone else does.

However, if there are global modifiers that affect everyone, including skeptics, there might be times when more people find stones and/or make enriched items, regardless of their personal astro. Again in this latter case, everybody's chances are increased, but it doesn't matter if I am the only one logged on or if there are 200 people mixing.

 

The idea of what he stated seems like it might be correct. I'm far to ignorant of the situation to say yes or no but it sounds plausable. Is there any way that it can be tested?

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I don't know how is implemented on the server side, but as long as the chance is independent (ie. 1 efe in 10000 fe) it doesn't matter how many ppl are mixing fe. Just like when you roll the dice: you won't get 6 more times because more ppl are rolling dices(or even the same dice). The total number of made EFEs will be bigger, but not per individual.

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I gotten EFE at 11000 and some at less then 5000...

Many have stated getting no ELE for 8000 and then 4 ELE in 5000 mixes..

so there is a factor to be considered..

 

The reason for the global factor... there has to be a balance to keep the market stable.. to keep people playing n happy.. also radu does sell the items..

There has to be a rate of release of period... I have no idea what that maybe... a week, a month., two months.. or how the figure is assessed..

 

Ok, lets say just for example 20 EFE per month and the quota is behind..so algorithm increases the rate... this would explain sudden higher rate people have at times, especially when many people are performing the same action.. harvesting or mixing... and also the dry periods when u get nothing even with a good astro..

 

Just my observation... I am no expert at all... Did not make my living writing code... I have an understanding of the mechanics of it... I in my fifties... took some programming classes in the eighties... guess what language... for the geeks... "Fortran" haha....

 

Eternal Lands is the only MMORPG I have ever played... I cant type well... And I suck at this.. but been playing for three years...

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Most of what you are describing is called "variance" or "RNG" (random number generator). That is the difference between a short term average in enriched essences rates.

 

That said, radu did mention on 6 like..6 months ago that he has changed the enriched essences rates in the past (global rates). This would effect long term averages much more than short term due to RNG.

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I definitely notice good patches of mixing - and I recall Radu stating that due to the way the maths works - if you have made an efe you are much more likely to mix another. This was before Astro.

 

I can ony assume it is due to the random astro not being strictly random.

 

I can also recal Radu stating that there are not quote of items coming into game, and as you near the quota, the chances decrease.

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Thanks Raz.....

 

As I stated.. there has to be balance in the game.... ie.. a general quota period.....

 

"as you near the quota, the chances decrease" then by logic, if the quota is not being reached, the chances are increase...

 

There are many smart people playing this game... and coders... playing for 7 years... I am sure many have deducted the approximate algorithm...

"And they ain't telling".... I wouldn't either... They giggling as they read this right now.....

 

Peace...enjoy the game.... help others if u can....

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There is no quota.

 

You try to mix an fe. The server generates a random number. Dependant upon the number generated, you get one of 4 results.

  • fe
  • efe
  • fail
  • crit fail
ie between 0-0.95 you get an fe, 0.95-0.96 you get fail, 0.97-0.995 you get crit fail, 0.995-1 you get efe. Your alch level affects the crit fail/success but if you dont change lvl, then you will always have the same outcome. Astro again changes these bands.

 

However the random number is not truly random. Sometimes - you have a far greater chance to generate a 'winning' ie EFE random number. This is not that unusual - true random numbers are hard to generate, and given the number required in EL - there may be some shortcuts which cause this skew.

 

The one thing we dont know is when teh God changes the chances - ie makes efe rarer to get - but as far as I am aware this can only be done when the server is restarted,

Edited by Raz

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Good Point...

then the teh God has quite a range...

that would explain the drastic changes in rates.. at times...

 

and if one was set the ratios in a manner to control this, there would be no need for the global release check..

Ok makes sense.... is just ur statement about Radu and the decrease rate that had me confused

 

Enjoyed the discussion... now to play.... later..

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