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furzwei

liquidity calculator

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and i also had another idea

 

it always interested me in EL how liquid (meaning how easily i can change an item into gc) things are....

 

would be great to have a bot calculating that as well...

 

the only difficulty is if there can be a formula done for calculating that or just making a general table of liquidity of items...

 

i think a liquidity information would help people trading in-game much more and value the products better!!! i think it would be a really useful statistic about our items and things.

 

the question is the formula and i hope that there are some smart people here who can come up with something really nice on how to calculate liquidity..

 

my idea was something as follows

 

get statistics from market channel (maybe from rraisa, but that sometimes doesnt work out well) and than divide the number of people buying by the number of people selling a specific item

so: buying/selling __ if there are more people buying, the ratio would be over one and that is a good ratio meaning that the item can be sold fast.

 

is it possible to make a bot taking these statistics and calculating liquidity for the past day/week/month?

Edited by furzwei

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Why would you even want to calculate such information? If you really wanted to do something like this, you're probably more likely (in the off-chance, that is) of finding people in-game who will assist you with such things.

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why you need liquidity?

 

cuz when you want to buy some expensive stuff in game you can check in your storage how much all your sh!t is worth .... but if noone wants to buy your sh!t cuz its liquidity is 0 you can basically go and harvest lilacs for years

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why you need liquidity?

 

cuz when you want to buy some expensive stuff in game you can check in your storage how much all your sh!t is worth .... but if noone wants to buy your sh!t cuz its liquidity is 0 you can basically go and harvest lilacs for years

 

You can do that now, by requesting PC's on the market channel (or from other players) and totalling the result from every item.

 

Again, I do not see how this is useful.

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why you need liquidity?

 

cuz when you want to buy some expensive stuff in game you can check in your storage how much all your sh!t is worth .... but if noone wants to buy your sh!t cuz its liquidity is 0 you can basically go and harvest lilacs for years

 

You can do that now, by requesting PC's on the market channel (or from other players) and totalling the result from every item.

 

Again, I do not see how this is useful.

 

 

 

do you know that you are talking about something totally different than me?

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If I am, you've certainly not explained this idea half as well as you think you have.

 

Why, why would you possibly need this? How would you implement a feature in-game that fluctuated (prices for things change occasionally)? Have you put any thought into this at all....?

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As I read this thread I think that:

 

Aphistolas is talking about the value of items ("by requesting PC's on the market channel").

 

Furzwei is talking about the ability to sell items ignoring the price/value ("divide the number of people buying by the number of people selling a specific item").

 

The first would give you an indication of how much an item is worth if you can find a buyer. The second would give you an idea of how easy it will be to find a buyer for an item priced at market rates.

 

Of course supply/demand curves and pricing above/at/below market would modify the results a lot.

 

I'm not implying the idea is good or bad, I'm just trying to help point out the difference between the two things being talked about.

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Seriously doubt anything of this nature would be implemented.

 

The ability to sell your wares, know what sells or doesn't sell well, etc. is a "no-experience skill", just like exploration. It takes time and patience to learn these things, just as it took time and patience to get to know each map well while exploring.

 

Something of this nature would be no different than adding a bot that told you where everything is... "/makegamedull closetosto tiger lilly"

 

 

As well, with a few exceptions, what sells or doesn't fluctuates quite regularly. I see this on market, and I noticed it while running an alchemy shop. (Periods of people buying air essies, suddenly noone was buying them and energy were more popular, etc. with no read indicators as to why the sudden shifts occured.)

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this could be made but with npc prices, 'cause market is a "living thing" and changes...so it's almost like getting pcs on items from a year ago

 

but imo this feature would be quite useless, because most of the ppl know what they have in storage (and usually value of those items as well), and with only pressing few keys you can get a price of almost any item in game if you don't know the price already...and only thing left to do is to sum up the values you get if ur not too lazy :pinch:

 

and as far as suppy/demand for some goods go, well, it's simple really, just pay attention to market channel for a while and you'll see. I mean honestly, do we need bots to do everything for us? :)

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As well, with a few exceptions, what sells or doesn't fluctuates quite regularly. I see this on market, and I noticed it while running an alchemy shop. (Periods of people buying air essies, suddenly noone was buying them and energy were more popular, etc. with no read indicators as to why the sudden shifts occured.)

 

well that would be my point.. i love economy and fluctuations and that would be a great feedback to players and developers to see how the markets change..

make predictions of profitable essies etc...

 

to have info like this would be amazing IMO ... know why some items begin selling less or more.. what are useless investments etc... (tin bars..)

 

so the point would be to sum up all this info.. to see how an update influences the people's willingness to buy things

 

that is exactly the point

 

its not info about close locations to storage, nor /helpbot whatshoulditrain a/d 50/50...

 

it would be rather statistical info helping understanding the economy

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This could be interesting, but how would you gather the information?

 

The server could log information from each trade between PCs, and between PCs and NPCs (separate process); recording figures each day.

 

But this would miss out bag trades and trades which take more than one transaction, but that would probably be okay as while its good to have some information, its bad for the game if its too accurate or reliable.

 

There would have to be a method of accounting for barter trades, or exchanges of multiple items; in which case determine the "value" for each item in the trade by converting each other item to its last-known gold value.

 

In addition, there would have to be a way to distinguish gifts and extreme outliers; ignore any trade where an item is valued at +/- 3 SIGMA from its last known value.

 

So during each transaction, for each item, add the number traded, the price-per-unit, and the price-per-unit-squared, to accumulators. At the end of the day (or other period) you then know the volume traded, the mean price, and the volatility in the price (the standard deviation, SIGMA).

 

While this would give a "spot" value for the day, its probably better to use a rolling mean to determine the "current value" for barter trades, to reduce the effect of idle days; for example exotic items only trade infrequently, so there may be no data for them on most days.

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And you missed my point, that this would completely invalidate what is the "no-point skill" of being able to keep up with such things yourself. Noted disctinctly how my side-note got quoted, but you completely ignored the primary part of my post, that being the skill involved.

 

The word "lazy" doesn't even begin to describe this.

 

 

 

As well, the ability to see "how" the market changes would by itself drastically change the economy of and sales that occur in the game. By no means in a good way. You think some things are hard to sell now? Wait till everyone sees "oh, this isn't selling, so I won't sell it either" and we go from a handful of people selling an item to noone, with everyone suddenly selling the same things because "they sell the most". And oh, you need that item that noone's selling anymore because your stats say they don't sell well.

 

Basic economics 101, works even in the warped economics of EL.

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once again thats the point

 

if you see that liquidity is falling its time to invest.... cuz the rule is

buy low, sell high

did you ever buy a stock?

 

you see on a graph that since the new enhanced iron armor .. noone buys others stuff... make some enhanced iron that, sell some, be part of the profit... invest in ingreds and find mixers to mix it for you if you cant, and sell it high..

and

if you see a graph falling you assume its going to be over soon... and when its at the bottom you begin buying again to sell high when its liquidity is up again..

 

so once again... a little structure is never bad.. thats called basic life 101 dude..

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you see on a graph that since the new enhanced iron armor .. noone buys others stuff...
That information is probably more relevant to Entropy, who already know the quantities of items in the game -- a new item should not make another redundant, otherwise what was the point of adding it? Either parameters or processes would then be tweeked to add a balance.

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This isn't really a good idea.

From my observations, the EL market system fluctuates oddly, not very easy to predict, due to a limited supply of some items (enriched ess, serp stones, etc etc), and infinite supply of others (ores, flowers, etc). I would be impossible to predict the supply of most items due to the randomness in the supply of the ingredients.

 

For my second point we'll use essences as an example. If we were able to predict when demand for a certain essence would be high, everyone would make many in that timeframe, much more than was demanded in the first place. That would cause a surplus. Surpluses drives price down, and according to the law of supply, suppliers produce their goods proportionally to price. (I.E: The higher the price the more suppliers produce, to make more a profit. The lower the price the less they produce, etc.). So then when all of this essence is used up buy the people, and they need more, the price would be so absurdly low compared to ingredient cost, no one would make it, and there wouldn't be any.

 

Also, it would be very difficult to predict supplies of items in order to choose prices because of a certain variable called experience. Many people make items with little to no demand at all because they give good experience, and many people would make a certain essence less in demand over another because of experience.

 

I could make more points, but I'm tired. Overall, it's a rather futile idea imo.

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Exactly. Such information would change the economy in drastic ways, none of which are good.

 

 

You may think you're just asking for some information, but what you're asking for would change the game in ways that obviously aren't being grasped here. If they were grasped, this wouldn't have been suggested at all.

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Now that bkc explained this, I think I fully understand it. I still don't think it's a good idea for two reasons, though:

 

1) Outstandingly simple to determine, without the use of any computer. Most people already know what sells and what doesn't. Isn't it kind of obvious that titanium plate mail has a higher sellability (a word I just made up) than iron plate-mail? Does the fact it's significantly easier to find someone--or a bot-- selling titanium armour than it is iron cause this? Similarly, if people are mixing thousands of SRs a day, would that not imply they sell better than, say, Potions of Wildness?

 

2) Market fluctuations. How would you propose to keep the liquidity index of an item at an appropriate level? As new features are implemented, the demand for certain items increases and decreases. For example, the recent God Quests brought some influx into the market. As did the implementation of mules, and such. The prices change too much to make this kind of information completely useless. And, assuming shop-NPC prices is not an option (at least for me, and I'd think most of EL's population would agree there).

 

I can see how this would be useful.... Though I think having a little common sense and patience is both easier and more productive. You can research the market, to find out what sells. This isn't difficult, especially with all the people camped out on Channel 3, and only consumes a few seconds checking the advertisements every so often.

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OMG

 

dark ignorance is shining from you!

 

anyways..

 

eternity... beautiful idea you had .. yeah too much supply, low price, noone produces.... BUT THAN IT CONTINUES FOR F!CK'S SAKE!!.. that is the point of everything cuz than there are no essences cuz prices were low.. and than cuz noone does anything the few essences still in circulation will increase in price and than it begins all over again!!!

OMG

 

and it would ruin the economy mr goodaytodie? how?

you know what ruins the economy? not knowing what is happening and yet thinking you manage it all... that ruins the economy

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it wouldn't ruin the economy if only a hand full of ppl would have access to the information, but if all of the folks had access...well, that's a bit different story i guess

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Okay - so his completely unconstructive post gets to stay but mine doesn't? Hmm....

 

@furzwei: Yes, purely because we do not believe in your idea, we are bad people. Please do grow up; not everyone will like your ideas, and the fact is I simply fail to see how this could possibly be a useful-feature in-game. Not to mention most people seem opposed to it, as well.

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