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Success Rate for HE's

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This was a small project I did on the side.This probably wont make much sense to some people either.

 

For some time Ive been wondering how to figure out your success rate at a given level when making HEs (or any item for that matter). Ive asked around for numbers, did some experimentation (made some HE's basically) and correlated the Numbers. I knew for some time based on the 3 points of data I had, It would involve a e^x function, but I didnt know which one, So More data was needed.After I got a couple more points of data, I grabbed the calc and did some regressions (looked in my math book also)

 

Formula for Success rate when making HE's. This formula is actually a restricted growth formula

 

100/(1+20e^(.18x))

 

where x is your level. When I was looking for my data, I found something rather interesting.From levels 18 to 31 there was a Overall 40% Increase in success rate (50% to 90%). From levels 31 to 52 There was only a .5% Change in success rate, and from 52 and up there was 5% change in success rate. So if you make HEs for your mag or profit, you dont need to go much higher than level 31. However, the only reason to level up after that is to improve the success rate of your other essences or bars.

 

SO, What does this mean for the average player? Well When first playing the game, one would assume that 2*rec level would give 100% Right? Wrong! It actually gives about 93% success, However, Using the rule of thumb to achieve a high success rate still holds True. To get Near a 100% success rate you would have to almost triple the rec level to get around 98% success. Thats a lot of leveling to do!

 

The only problem with the above formula is that it doesnt take into account the random factor of astrology or other factors, So Heres another theory Ive developed:

 

(random #) +/- base success rate from above formula

 

Where the random number can vary as much as 10% (Hmm random # varies from 1 to 5, and then that number is turned into a percentage). What this means is that You may get a lousy 88% or even up to 95% at double the rec. level.

 

This formula can also be applied to Other Essences/bars/Armor/Potions/etc by changing the 20 and .18 constants, but 4 or 5 points of data would be needed to develop the formula for the success rate of those things.

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This formula looks far to complicated, programmers tend to use simple addition, subtraction, multiplication and perhaps max/min functions, because all others use too many resources.

 

All I need know: 30 levels over recommend it's pretty safe.

So when I make pricey things or mix for profit I stick with this rule and when I mix for training I start +5-10 over recommended.

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This formula looks far to complicated, programmers tend to use simple addition, subtraction, multiplication and perhaps max/min functions, because all others use too many resources.

 

All I need know: 30 levels over recommend it's pretty safe.

So when I make pricey things or mix for profit I stick with this rule and when I mix for training I start +5-10 over recommended.

 

Thats one thing I thought of, and I know e goes on forever, but if you just use 2 decimal places (ie, 2.75) It wouldnt be too complicated. I tried using linear regression and the data just doesnt fit.

 

...Unless...success rate = Level * some modifier *random percentage

 

Then your success is based on your level and doesnt follow a graph..

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From my experience its worth to make health essence as soon as u reach alchemy 20, exp is awesome, and u got around 70% succes rate, so only little less than on FE's.

Around lvl 40 ur fails on HE's r like 5%, which is good enough for easy and comfortable mixing ;)

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im fairly certain it will be based on an exponential function and the one you suggest seems to go with peoples experiences so its probably about right.

 

good work

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I also believe the success rate is based on an exponential function, but as Alberich has already stated, your proposed formula is too complicated for a simple and constantly repeated task such as mixing. It could quite possibly be parabolic in nature with an unreachable maximum of (100-x)%

Of course this search for a formula is unnecessary as time is better spent analyzing approximate success rates through experience, rather than compiling enough data to make an appropriate guess through all the chaos of these variables (i.e. astrology etc.)

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nice job on taking the time to figure out all the success rates. I'm currently a 17 alc making HEs. there are times when I'll make 6 or 8 in a row, and other times when I will fail just as many. I'll try to find time to do an actual count of this in the next couple of days to give you and extra data point :confused:

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well, i made 100 health essences at lvl 17 alc. I got 50 successes and 50 fails, 15 of which lost the ingredients. does anyone know how much, if at all, attributes affect the success rates?

 

oh, and i'll be tracking 100 of them at lvl 18 when I get there.

Edited by martydi

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Attributes have no effect on the rate of success.

100 is too small as a sample size, do 10k (at least), since you probably don't want to start a lot of alts just for that do at least as many as possible :)

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well, i made 100 health essences at lvl 17 alc. I got 50 successes and 50 fails, 15 of which lost the ingredients. does anyone know how much, if at all, attributes affect the success rates?

 

oh, and i'll be tracking 100 of them at lvl 18 when I get there.

 

I finally did 100 at lvl 18. I got 55 successes and 45 fails, 15 of which lost the ingredients. The change between these two lvls I dont think is very significant, as I only did 100 trails, but who knows? when I get to lvl 31 (who knows when that will be) I'll check back on the rate and see if my experiment matches Nerdz's.

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This formula looks far to complicated, programmers tend to use simple addition, subtraction, multiplication and perhaps max/min functions, because all others use too many resources.

 

100/(1+20e^(.18x))

 

Well, I really don't know if calculate this would be a bottle neck in a software like EL server, but I doubt it uses too much resources to execute this. Also, if x is the level, then it can be easily pre-calculated and cached in a table, so you trade space for speed.

 

So, if data fits... then there is no reason to think it's not a good approximation.

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well, i made 100 health essences at lvl 17 alc. I got 50 successes and 50 fails, 15 of which lost the ingredients. does anyone know how much, if at all, attributes affect the success rates?

 

oh, and i'll be tracking 100 of them at lvl 18 when I get there.

 

I finally did 100 at lvl 18. I got 55 successes and 45 fails, 15 of which lost the ingredients. The change between these two lvls I dont think is very significant, as I only did 100 trails, but who knows? when I get to lvl 31 (who knows when that will be) I'll check back on the rate and see if my experiment matches Nerdz's.

 

did 100 at lvl 29 and got 70 successes.

Edited by Astoral

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