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sadarar

failure rates

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Not often do I make the same item for a long time to level through several levels, but from memory I have done so on steel bars, leather helms and bear stones.

 

I tend to mix at the site of the heaviest harvestable, so I know the number of possible items I can make each trip, and I noticed that as the levels increase, the number of good items remains constant for a LONG time, before eventually tailing off to small amounts.

 

I also noticed another thing. I believe there is a minimum failure rate (1%?) that can be achieved, but if I make 1000 FE, I would expect to finish with ~995 essies. I would not fail certainly more than 2% overall, and I think close to the 1% minumum, so a LOT of these failures are critical.

 

My theory is that while the proportion of failed mixes will reduce depending on levels, the fraction of fails that are critical failures increases. Anyone else noticed this? atm I am making bear stones, and from 14 potential stones per trip, I almost always get 11 stones. This has been true since I started making them (5 levels below rec with summon potion) and now still true 2 levels above rec (still with pot). I do, however, use less FP now per trip, so that suggests less fails overall, but the same number of crits. I guess you must get to the point where total fails is getting quite low, and at that point your total of good items will start to increase.

 

Anyone else seen this effect? Or is it well known, and in fact appears on page 226 of the encyclopedia ;p

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My theory is that while the proportion of failed mixes will reduce depending on levels, the fraction of fails that are critical failures increases.

I do, however, use less FP now per trip, so that suggests less fails overall, but the same number of crits.

 

I think this is right.

But I end up with less than 995 FE out of 1000 FE and yes, almost all fails are critical.

The same with steel bars, I only need to bring FPS for the bars I'm going to make, because close to all fails are criticals.

 

I think the minimum failure rate it higher than 1% and different for all items.

If I'm making 100 iron bars, do I usually end up with 99.

For steel bars is it 498 or 499 bars out of 500, even if iron bars are lower level.

 

It's with level 123, I think it will not change with higher levels.

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My theory is that while the proportion of failed mixes will reduce depending on levels, the fraction of fails that are critical failures increases.

I think that theory is wrong simply because it's too complicated (to implement). The fact that there's never a "fail safe" level is due to a random factor modifying the chance of success.

I recently made a batch of water essences and I lost about 1 in 100 and I also experienced a corresponding amount of noncritical failures.

 

In my opinion this is just another superstition about in game statistics (like speed of toadstool consumption influencing chance to poison (why would the server care? too complicated!) or "bad luck" close to new levels (if the underlying formulas are using levels and not experience this doesn't make sense and is just based on the fact that you notice the failures more because you're watching your numbers, if it's experience based and the chance to fail increases with experience then good night :D and both would be too complicated).

:P

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I agree with Erma, and there is the astro too, and that affects the fail rate. There are some days when i hit 10 poisons in a row, and it is almost impossible to use them, in other days rarely get poisoned. This is true on the alching and other mixing skills too, there is when i criticaly fail 1 of 400 steel bars there is days when i fail more.

And for the special items this true too, my best luck with them was 3 efe in 100 fe...

 

T.

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I don't believe in the toadstool-eating speed or close-to-level higher fail rate... I get the opposite. When I have just gotten a new level, I seem to fail more often. And I get less poison when I rush through the toadstools, eating them at a slow pace seems to get me poisoned more.

So those are indeed just stories ^^

 

I don't believe in what Sadarar said either, though I must say that I noticed the same. It's not in the code, it's just coincidence. I should say... It's just EL. :huh:

 

(I am Skeptic, so Astro has nothing to do with this)

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