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Entropy

Disclosure of the rate changes

Let us know what you think about it  

304 members have voted

  1. 1. Should the rare stuff ratio changes be made public?

    • Yes
      119
    • No
      181


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I don't see why it's better for the game that I have 11 iron plates in my storage than if I have 1 iron plate and ingreds for 10 more - 20 EFEs. :)

They are all for own use.

 

But I'll make some armor to get the EFEs out of game ;)

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We posted at the same time, please view my previous post.

I don't know what the server's capable of.

 

If you can obtain the CURRENT_ITEM_COUNT from recent creations (a period of say, the last week at runtime), then perhaps you have a fair way of identifying that value. In my post, I assumed that MAX_ITEM_COUNT would be the count of ALL instances of that particular item in-game (not so good, as it would include those from inactive players)

 

If you don't like this, can you tell us what the server's capable of (either now or with changes) with regards to counting items, so we can get an accurate take on things?

Edited by Placid

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We posted at the same time, please view my previous post.
Added a form that doesnt require a current item count, just a count of the number recently created.

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One of the things that really piss me off is when someone has such a great idea, but doesn't have any clue about how to implement it, and suggests that others implement it.

LOL, I had a chat with Trollson, so here goes:

 

chance = (item.MAX_ITEM_COUNT - item.CURRENT_ITEM_COUNT)/item.MAX_ITEM_COUNT
if(chance > 0)
chance = chance * rand()

 

Example:

chance = (10000 - 9050)/10000
(chance is 0.95, i.e. very high)
is chance > 0?
chance = 0.95 * 1.435362
chance is 0.13635939 (i.e. very low)

 

Probably too basic, but it gives a general idea.

 

 

I don't agree that there should be a ceiling number of the amount of rare items in the game. lowering the chance based on a scaled forumula would be better, like:

 

Start with the premise that if there are 0 in the game, the chance to make one is 5%, this base chance influences the rest of the formula, and could be adjusted based on how many of an item ent wants in the game.

 

(1/20) = 0.05

 

for each efe in the game, reduce the chance by dividing 0.05 by the number in game

 

0.05 / (total efe in game) - total efe in game would need to be counted form the flat files, which should only be performed on a limited basis (perhaps every el day??)

 

so if there was 5000 efe's in the game, 0.05 / 5000 = 0.00001 = 0.001% chance of making an efe and hence, you'd get an average of 1 efe per 1000 fe's made. then if lots of efe's flooded in over the course of the day and now you had 10,000 efe's in game the next day would look like this:

 

0.05 / 10000 = 0.000005 = 0.0005% chance of making an efe, which is one out of 2000 fe's

 

If i got the # of efe per fe's right (this was a quickie post), thats alot of efe's per fe, but you can see how the drop rate really scales based on how many there are, without a cap, but using a base chance that allows ent a good level of control.

 

This way also creates another market dilema, if people hold onto them, they get more rare. if people use them, there are more drops. So folks who make fe's and sell the efe's are better served by selling to someone who will USE the efe's rather then hanging onto them.

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Well, it's not that easy to determine an optimal number for each item. Some items come from the shop too, and some come due to special days, and so on.

The trick is determining the OPTIMAL number of each item to be in the game, and this is where it gets impossible.

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Ok, I realize that EL isn't RL – but I think that the scarcity/hoarding issue is probably related.

 

Why do people hoard things? They get hoarded when it is perceived that they will be worth more in the future. Now, some people have argued that they don't hard to sell later for cash – but this doesn't actually matter at all. If they hoard to use it is because they don't want to have to buy the item later – and that is because they expect the item to be expensive to buy at a later date. (For those who argue that it won't be expensive – just inconvenient – I argue that they are in fact the same thing. Expense and convenience are trade-offs – post on channel 3/33 that you'll buy up to 100 EFEs for 25k each and you'll have people running to the store from all over C1/C2.)

 

The root cause of this is often inflation – the fear that a gc today is worth a lot more than a gc tomorrow.

 

If there were no fear of inflation then (rational) people would sell their excess stuff now, and then just buy it back later if it were needed.

 

Now, I'm not sure if the issue is with inflation in general, as people aren't hoarding everything – just a few particular items whose quantity is carefully controlled. You don't see the value of FEs changing much.

 

I don't think that the total number of an item is a good indicator of how rare it should be – at least not by itself. I think you need to look at the trade in an item holistically, where hoarding is just one factor. Normally I'd just say not to worry about hoarding and just be more liberal with rares with the goal of maintaining a given price range. However, I do realize the problem of dumping.

 

One possible solution to hoarding is decay. If you give rosts and EFEs a half-life of maybe 2 months or so then people will definitely not hoard them – and it wouldn't matter if they tried to. Items would quickly find their way to people who could make use of them. Rosts are a bit of a special case – many people carry them as an insurance policy even if they don't intend to risk death – so a rost might stick around for a long time with lots of people having 1-2 each.

 

Another solution would be a banking system – if people had something to do with their cash then they'd be less likely to hoard items. Instead they'd sell them and put the cash into some kind of investment. That is essentially how most governments regulate the monetary supply. Of course, in EL anything that adds cash to the economy is going to be an issue in general.

 

I think that keeping actual rare generation ratios secret isn't a bad idea – people will still get the general feel for what the ratios are but it won't have an instant effect and will allow for more gradual adjustments to take place.

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I find an idea of keeping rare items at certain, priorly chosen, not a really good idea. The main reason is that it is an artificial solution. Moreover, with constantly fluctuating number of players it makes not much sense. There are new players coming, old ones reactivating, etc. Certain amount, impossible to determine, of rare items is frozen and may hit the market absolutely any moment, as well as never. Therefore, it may ended, worst case, that all of rare items got frozen and new one wouldn't ever come. There is an exactly same reason for not making the probability of appearing of new rare items on the number of them already in the game.

I voted for not revealing the chances of getting rare items not because it may or may not influence the market, but just because in my most honest opinion such a knowledge is completely redundant for us, players.

(Side note: it reminds me the hilarious story with artificial perk who seemed to work perfectly for quite many players till the day some facts about it got revealed and when it suddenly wasn't working good enough)

Regards,

~Anshar

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Another solution would be a banking system – if people had something to do with their cash then they'd be less likely to hoard items. Instead they'd sell them and put the cash into some kind of investment. That is essentially how most governments regulate the monetary supply. Of course, in EL anything that adds cash to the economy is going to be an issue in general.

 

Good idea, as it is now is it better to have lots of items in storage than gc.

You can always sell something if you need gc.

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Well, it's not that easy to determine an optimal number for each item. Some items come from the shop too, and some come due to special days, and so on.

The trick is determining the OPTIMAL number of each item to be in the game, and this is where it gets impossible.

I think the optimal amount of a particular item is proportionate to its uses. EFEs can be used in many more situations compared to a Nexi Removal Stone. Could uses (literally meaning, the amount of recipes/formulas it is used in) be factored in to Trollson's formula?

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Yes, a banking system is a good idea. People would put money there for interest, so in reality there would be less money in the economy and there would be little extra incoming because of interest. This way people would also be encouraged to actually stock on gc instead of on items.

Edited by Cycloonx

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Are "hoarders" actually going to consider selling off wholesale EFE at some point? Wouldnt it be more likely that by the time the price has increased sufficiently, they would have amassed enough "other ingredients" to go WITH their hoarded EFE collections and have someone make up either armour or weapons from those EFE? That way they will get far Greater return on their hoard?

 

Or is this also considered a theoretical problem for the market at some future point too? If so, does the concern take into account the VAST selection of different items that can be made from those efe? I can understand if its worrying that the market may face a flood of efe-manu'ed items but there is surely such a big variation of types that the effect is dissipated somewhat, isnt it?

 

On a separate note Entropy, may I enquire, is the levels of EFE you keep a track of ever compared against the amount of people who can actually use them? Will you be compensating your target levels accordingly, as the number of ingame manuers increases, for instance? Is that even possible for you to track? If not, sorry I brought it up, but it occurs to me that if theres twice as many manuers in 6 months as there are now that can use efe, then the amount of EFE ingame should be less of a worry at that point. I have no idea of how many manuers vs the EFE levels there are at present or if that figure would be having any effect on the efe levels, but it kinda seems there would be some revelance at taking it into account...to me anyways...

 

Or I could be talking complete bollox as usual :)

 

- PYE

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hehe - just announce that EFEs are gonna be removed from a bunch of formulae on next update(but not tell which). See how fast they get used then...

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Not everyone hordes b/c they hope the price will go up. Some horde b/c they are investing in themselves... holding on until they either need the item or need something they can easily sell for cash when in a pinch.

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Just my 2 cents of an economy n00b:

 

The problem arent not the items in game, the problem are the items available in market.

 

If items rot in storage and collect dust, they are not in market, so they are not really in game, so they wont influence it.

 

Like ghrae said, ppl may keep stuff for later use, like i do. I am not planning to throw 100k diamonds or 60k ti ore in market at a time when the price is good, im just happy with it and will use it when i need it.

 

And the best post, of course, here was Anshar and his comment about the artificier perk, thats exactly the point.

 

It was in game for a long time and everybody was happy with it, but when the truth came out, how it works, everybody went mad and price adjustments were made just out b/c everybody's going mad.

 

Thats why i voted "no". The amount of rare items doesnt affect the market, but some ppl get mad when they *know* that an item may be more rare or not.

 

Insider knowledge may be the buzzword and "idiot" when you just react and adjust your prices, because you just have got an information (lowering/raising the chance to get rare items).

 

Thats why i voted "no". Just dont let us play this game, it will lead to nowhere.

 

Piper

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@Pyewacket

No, we can not reliably track that info, and even if we could, it's not only about who can use the EFEs but also how much need there is for the products made with it, etc.

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speaking in a business sense from a successfull business man and sales man, You dont disclose such information to the customers, its a big No No......

 

It does infact affect the price on the market, mabye it wont budge the few hoarders But it will influence the price NO MATTER WHAT PEOPLE SAY

 

if people know that eFe are rare they will instinctivly raise their price and the masses may grumble but sooner or later they will adjust..and vice versa if they arent rare buyers will refuse higher prices and wait untill people lower

 

in closing if you Entropy make such adjustments at youre discresion w/o letting people know ,then you will attain the effect you seek..a balanced market ...and the hoarders wont benefit cause prices wont fluctuate so much ..imo and from my exp in rl making money ..and ive made alot of it

Edited by mufossa

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@Pyewacket

No, we can not reliably track that info, and even if we could, it's not only about who can use the EFEs but also how much need there is for the products made with it, etc.

 

Since I train in iron plate cuisses and greaves and make my own gears, I prefer to make them rather than buy from market. Even though its actually more expensive to do so at the moment. Part of the reason behind this is that I get manu exp from making my own iron plate items but MOST comes from a perceived reluctance to wear an item someone else made in case it isnt "as new" and may therefore be somewhat quicker to break than something I KNOW is freshly made...

 

I am pretty sure this same reluctance to wear someone elses manu'd items has a ceiling of willingness in regards to purchasing them however (fortunately) since the higher end items REQUIRE you to buy from someone else in many cases, coz not everyone has the levels for those items. But lower end..well..it may go a little way to explain why theres so many Iron greaves and cuisses ingame that arent being bought?

 

Again I point out I could just be talking a load of crap. :D

 

 

edit:typo

Edited by Pyewacket

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I want to react on the proposition that has been made to limit the rare items according to the number of them already in game. IMO, this will not solve the problem and will amplify it. Of course, you'll reach your goal of having a constant number of items ingame but if people know that it's working like that, greedy hoarders can try to gather all the EFEs to have a total control on them and it will be very bad for the economy...

 

So if you decide to do so, I think you should not inform people about it and not fix a maximum amount of rare items. There should always be a little chance to make them.

 

BTW, someone also proposed to give the possibility to players to make enriched essences from scratch and I think that this could be really interesting. I already add the same idea about enrichment stones. Soon we'll be able to make saving stones, why not enrichment stones too? I know that it could be very easy for people to make them but if the ingreds worth double the price of actual ones, I think it should not be abused too much and then people will don't have any remorse to use or sell the ones they have in storage.

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I want to react on the proposition that has been made to limit the rare items according to the number of them already in game. IMO, this will not solve the problem and will amplify it. Of course, you'll reach your goal of having a constant number of items ingame but if people know that it's working like that, greedy hoarders can try to gather all the EFEs to have a total control on them and it will be very bad for the economy...

Remember the global limits would be on all things. Harvesting resources would be limited too, so in the end, people would be forced to trade. I also think it's highly unlikely that people would be successful in doing this, as not everyone sells their EFEs or enrichment stones - although i'm well aware of the fact that if something can be abused, it almost certainly will.

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Okay, I have a couple of comments.

1) Please read before you ask a question. Several of us had already answered "Why is it bad?" when people asked (yes, in this thread).

2) A static limit is a bad idea. A limit that's based on the number of active players is better. One that takes into account the general level of development of the characters better still (as that will often, though not always, indicate the level of involvement of those players. Compare an account with almost no stats that plays an hour per week vs a high level and rich account played many hours a day).

3) No, this isn't an ideal solution to the hoarders (and as I said before, I don't have an issue with the people who make the items collecting a few before selling, or the people who use them buying a reasonable number; I have a problem with the people who buy now so that they can sell for more later. That's price fixing. And as soon as the prices start to go down, whether from Ent adjusting the rate or from a few of the hoarders selling, yes, many other hoarders will sell as well (why wait for the price to drop further)... In extreme cases, you may lose a lot, fast. Maybe even go from 5.5k to 4k in a few days. And when you consider how many EFE that might be getting un-hoarded, you can't say that won't have an impact on the economy). But it is something that can be done without radical changes to EL's game system.

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2) A static limit is a bad idea. A limit that's based on the number of active players is better. One that takes into account the general level of development of the characters better still (as that will often, though not always, indicate the level of involvement of those players. Compare an account with almost no stats that plays an hour per week vs a high level and rich account played many hours a day).
I really like this one :(

 

Some time ago, I've proposed in the suggestion forum a way to limit the amount of rare items in storages for the same reasons but the idea was not well welcomed for many reasons. One of the reason was that top manuers/crafters need to have a good amount of rare items in storage to do their business and it's totally understandable. But in the opposite, the hoarders are often people who have items that are totally useless for them but that keep them just in case they could sell them for a good price later. It's for example the case of harvesters who has a lot of rosto but don't use them because they don't fight or the fighters who has a lot of serp stones and enriched essences but never use them because they don't manu/craft.

 

So my idea is really simple: Why not fixing a limited amount of items in storage according to skill levels <edit> and nexus </edit>? :D

Yes I know, many people don't like that but still, I had to propose it again...

Edited by Schmurk

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I voted no. In real world markets its tantamount to insider trading.

 

Exactly. This should be more about what people think things are worth, not what they are worth. The same happens to be true with the stock market in RL.

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One that takes into account the general level of development of the characters better still (as that will often, though not always, indicate the level of involvement of those players. Compare an account with almost no stats that plays an hour per week vs a high level and rich account played many hours a day).

How is that going to help?

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One that takes into account the general level of development of the characters better still (as that will often, though not always, indicate the level of involvement of those players. Compare an account with almost no stats that plays an hour per week vs a high level and rich account played many hours a day).
How is that going to help?
It'll make the numbers more appropriate. Compare number of EFE that would be in-game if it was based on the number of total accounts, vs if it were based on the number of accounts that are being played at least once a week.

While the lower level players may produce a number of EFE, they aren't going to be (or shouldn't be, considering the people who've used iron plate to hunt beavers and such) the people who consume them (as the mixer or user of the item).

When you want to consider how many people are likely to use something, you have to exclude those who won't from the total set :)

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