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Entropy

Disclosure of the rate changes

Let us know what you think about it  

304 members have voted

  1. 1. Should the rare stuff ratio changes be made public?

    • Yes
      119
    • No
      181


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Keeping the rate changes secret whether you announce them or not will make the hoarders err on the side of caution and just stock up more. It will make the problem worse instead of better. The idea of making them guaranteed items per 10K instead of random would flatten out the price completely IMO because then everyone would know just how much work at most it would take to get one.

 

Rares being completely random is what causes the hoarding. Change the source of the problem and the problem is cured instead of 'fixed'. This is just like medicine. Entropy you are treating a symptom instead of the disease. People can go 30K FEs without getting an EFE. It works the same for all of the rare stuff. You cannot count on luck so people hoard stuff for later use just incase demand is increased. The people who hoard stuff for selling later are the equivalent to scammers in my book. They are only feeding on the system that is providing them the opportunity in the first place though.

 

Knowledge is power. Ignorance may be bliss but it is deadly. Not knowing where your next rare item is coming from creates the fear that the hoarders feed on. If you remove that fear then you remove their ability to prey on that fear. I voted yes because more ignorance is not going to help anyone. In the real world quantities are known and production is speculated on or in some cases fixed and prices only fluctuate accord to unexpected changes in production. This is what makes the price stable. The same thing can be done for EL.

 

TirunCollimdus

CoGM of PATH

Perseverance And Tolerance Honored

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Voted no.

 

Whilst I like the idea of knowing if I stand a better chance this month than last month of mixing an enriched ess, I think it is better for the game if this info is withheld.

 

Having said that, one point that seems not to have been addressed is that folks like myself that DO get an efe and have it in storage, will use it to make an Iron plate item for the exp rather than purchase a ready made item that is already available on the market DESPITE the fact that the EFE is actually worth more! I do this for the exp and to have another item added to my manu counters, couldnt care less about the cost or rarity of the EFE as when I make something out of an EFE none of that actually enters into my consideration.

 

I am sure I am not the only one that would rather make their own items from EFE rather than buy from someone else? Since its a high probability that I am not, its only a small leap from there to assume that this is also why some folks choose to hoard such items as well, and NOT merely for the sake of selling off at a better price?

 

- PYE

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(sooner or later they will go in the market, and if everyone will decide to sell them at once, their price will go down bad).

 

Why would everyone drop their EFE on the market? If the prices goes too low no one will sell them anyway and prefer to keep them for later.

 

You can say the same for oil, if every stock got dumped on the market now oil will be as cheap as water, but no one will do that.

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Why would everyone drop their EFE on the market? If the prices goes too low no one will sell them anyway and prefer to keep them for later.

 

It's a bubble effect.

The price starts declining, and everyone wants to sell theirs while the price is still high.

Happens all the time in economy, now it's happening with the homes, in the US.

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Why would everyone drop their EFE on the market? If the prices goes too low no one will sell them anyway and prefer to keep them for later.

 

It's a bubble effect.

The price starts declining, and everyone wants to sell theirs while the price is still high.

Happens all the time in economy, now it's happening with the homes, in the US.

 

Well that's something that happens quite often on the stock market. If prices goes insane high there comes a correction in place, this means that a lot of people are going to sell their stocks at that moment because they are overvalued. On this point the price will go back to the real value of the stock and the price will stop to decline.

 

So in EL: Prices of EFE goes to 7-8k, people will restart selling their EFE, prices will drop back to a lower price, let's say 5k and most people will again stop selling. That means the real value of EFEs is around 5k. The market is always slow when it comes to changes, but prices always go back to the real value.

Edited by Cycloonx

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Many people have stated how RL economy works and how this can be applied to EL. In my opinion, you can't treat ELs economy the same as RL.

 

People pay more gc for items in game, just beacuase they want an item and don't want to bother hunting for a lower price. As people do this it can make the prices go up.

 

In real life people do not often affect the price of things in that way, prices rise and drop according to supply and demand. and other factors.

 

Ingame when a change in an items rarity is announced the price changes, because the games economy can easily be alterted by players. And with the sudden feeling that an item is rarer they become more expensive, when in fact there were just as many EFEs ingame right after the change was announced, as there were before. In real life, you may hear about a sudden shortage of something, but you don't see the change in price until awhile later when the actual effect of the shortage of that thing is felt.

 

If the changes of items rarity is not announced, the prices will likely change very little compared to when if it is announced, people will continue to pay the same price as they always have. Slowly the items might become slightly more expensive when people start paying more because they are having more trouble finding the item. I think this would be better, the huge price changes that occur when we know items are more rare are pointless, it is a change caused by our knowledge and worries that our items are not getting what they are worth. Prices should change when we see and feel the shortage of certain items, not when we are fabricating ideas on an items rarity based on our knowledge.

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As a manufacturer/crafter, I am keeping a supply of rare items for future use. I'm willing to spend down my supplies as long as I can purchase replacements at a price that allows me to make a profit on the manufactured goods, but that hasn't been happening lately. Serp stones and EFEs haven't been coming in (I used to be able to buy a steady trickle of supply using my bot) so I've been reluctant to make too many items that require rare ingredients.

 

I haven't decided how to vote. I'm not sure it matters. I don't expect to sell my supply of rare items no matter what the price is. The price only affects my replacement cost and therefore my wilingness to use my stock (and what price I have to charge for manufactured goods).

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I Voted yes. On many points I agree with the folks who voted no, and if it was a choice between having very few rate changes and knowing about it and having many (daily? weekly?) rate changes and NOT knowing I would prefer not to know and have the rate change all of the time.

 

I think it's great to know the drop rates of items, and I think that those who hoard them will do so anyways because it helps prop up prices of thier manufactured goods. And I really like the speculative buying and selling that goes on with announced changes (I remember buying 80-90 efe's at 3k each and selling for lots more (5k+) after an announcement) because it rewards those who save the gc to buy up the market and rewards the risk for those who guess correctly and pay attention to the market in the game.

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Yes if we keep the rarity a secret the price changes will be slower coming and going but they will come and go nonetheless. I would like to point out that for long range plans the sudden scarcity of EFEs sucks for players who cannot afford to buy them in the EL shop. I don't have time to sit making 100K FEs to make sure I have a happy stockpile of EFE's in storage and I cannot afford to buy them every time I see them.

 

That is all in response to things posted previously. What really matters is that you will not stop people from hoarding EFEs by not announcing changes in rarity. If they don't know when there next EFE is coming it is just like not knowing when your next meal is coming. You use what you have to and save what you can. The hoarders are just gross caricatures of this behavior. They are going to wait for better prices whether you tell them about them or not. When they find the price they want they will sell and until then they will wait. Price spikes may tempt them to sell but as long as the changes in rarity are far enough apart the effects of this will be just as if they waited for the price to climb naturally.

 

The problem cannot be fixed topically. No problem can every be fixed topically except for problems that are as minor as the scrapes that only need band aids. This is a deep rooted problem and band aids are not going to fix it. It needs to be fixed at the source. Either change the way we get rare items or give full disclosure on quantity and rarity so that we can see when the price is going up too high.

 

TirunCollimdus

CoGM of PATH

Patience And Tolerance Honored

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Just gotta point out, TC said everything that was practically in my head...

 

It will be nice for EFEs to go down at least a little, some people may not like that, but, it is a little high in price (IMO).

 

Whatever happens, we will pull through! :D

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well i dont know about the others, but i am one of the top "hoarders", and i have never sold a rost (traded a couple, and gave maybe 10 or so away as presents for very special occasions/ppl).

...

Those stones are NEVER gonna hit the market, no matter what price is out there, and they will be used sooner or later.

Same here, could'nt say it better.

I just have them is storage for later use,not to be traded.

...

I'm another holder (not hoarder) of a large number of rosts and other stones. I suspect many of the top harvesters have a good supply of various stones in storage. I too save everything for my own future use. I sold one rost when they first came out for 20K (and later regretted not keeping it) and traded a number of serp stones to a guild-mate (later regretting that too). If I want to make (or have made for ingredients) something that needs them, I want them on hand right NOW, I do not want to have to start looking to buy one somewhere. The same thing applies to enriched essence although I have a lot fewer of them on-hand.

 

In my mind, a rising price is not a reason to sell (to make a bunch of money) but a stronger reason to hold on to what I have (so I don't have to replace it at inflated prices). And of course it would be dumb to sell when prices are low. So like Soldus, this stuff will never hit the market.

 

I would be willing to move my rosts to another character (a fighter) that could make better (more timely) use of them, but then I'd get locked for multi-playing, so that won't work either. So I'll continue to hang on to the stuff for a future time when I need it.

 

Don't think of it as hording, think of it as a Costco sized "purchase". :D

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I have to say, I'm a hoarder, i keep my efe's for own use, i buy every cheap binding, enrichment or serpent stone. at one point i had over 160 stones (all kinds) only rosto's i sell if i have too many.

 

This said i don't see what would change if stats are dis/en closed. Ppl will still keep them in storage, simply because they wanna use them later if they get to the lvl they can use it themself or let someone make an item they want of it.

 

But, i always understood that in this game you could make gc with whatever you did. Some want to fight, others want to make items and a third and the smallest group imho are ppl who want to trade.

 

This last group take risks with buying rare items and selling them. if market changes they loose gc or make a lot of money, this is all an economic way to earn your gc in this game.

 

I wont vote cause i don't care if stats are going to stay secret or not. I will still keep my rare's in storage for my own use but i think we cant decide for those who wanna be a trader in this game. Let the market do what it has done in the month's i play this game and i think things will come to a pretty stable price.

 

Imho the only way to get items out of storage and into market so they can fluctuate, is make sure that if someone need eg. and EFE there will be one or it will be possible to make 1 ( I'm thinken about and extract+500 fe or something like that insteat or with an enrichment stone)

I know this will take the exclusivity off the enriched items but imho its the only way to get them out of storage and put a fair price on it without knowing what the chance is you make your next

Edited by Walt-Her

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Not voting, I don't think it matters.

 

The issue is not whether people keep them because there might be fluctuations in the market, it's the game mechanics that allow them to do so. Generation of such rare items should be dependent on how many are in the game globally, and then on random factors. Fix that, and you won't need to disclose this information.

 

Edit; i'm grammar obsessed.

Edited by Placid

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Generation of such rare items should be dependent on how many are in the game globally, and then on random factors. Fix that, and you won't need to disclose this information.

I must say I really like this idea. Self adjusting sliding scales. This way we wouldn't need server updates or restarts to adjust the frequency of rare item creation. Just set some target numbers and as the number of items approaches (or exceeds) this number the chance of creation dips automatically. As the number of items falls below the target the chance increases. I really like it.

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Going for Placids idea. if ppl keep items in store there wont come any more in game unless they are used.. Love it, and would be easier to adjust too, in case there come more ppl ingame just increase the number. It could even be connected against the average lvl of the players (high lvl fighters need more armour which requires more efe to make .

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Not voting, I don't think it matters.

 

The issue is not whether people keep them because they're might be fluctuations in the market, it's the game mechanics that allow them to do so. Generation of such rare items should be dependent on how many are in the game globally, and then on random factors. Fix that, and you won't need to disclose this information.

 

What about the players who leave the game?

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The 'global maximum' value would determine the rarity of an item, which would also need adjustment to ensure fairness, so unless this is changeable at runtime, it would probably need server updates too.

 

What about the players who leave the game?

Their accounts should be pruned after a certain amount of time. Also, storage shouldn't be so guaranteed. Item theft, rotting and perhaps even taxation (yeah i'm British - sue me) should weigh in on Storages, to act as a sink for items. If you have to pay, it means you have to play, which means those who leave would lose their items too...

Edited by Placid

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Not voting, I don't think it matters.

 

The issue is not whether people keep them because they're might be fluctuations in the market, it's the game mechanics that allow them to do so. Generation of such rare items should be dependent on how many are in the game globally, and then on random factors. Fix that, and you won't need to disclose this information.

 

And perhaps you will be kind enough to provide a formula for their rarity?

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Not voting, I don't think it matters.

 

The issue is not whether people keep them because they're might be fluctuations in the market, it's the game mechanics that allow them to do so. Generation of such rare items should be dependent on how many are in the game globally, and then on random factors. Fix that, and you won't need to disclose this information.

 

And perhaps you will be kind enough to provide a formula for their rarity?

Hmm, i'm not a mathematician nor am I a statistics guru. I suggest you speak to Trollson, whose excellent suggestions are too often ignored. I'll give it a try though:

 

if(item.global_count >= item.MAX_GLOBAL_COUNT)

return;

 

:D

 

I know there are others who could give a more accurate view of how it should work, so I think it should be those who write it :D

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One of the things that really piss me off is when someone has such a great idea, but doesn't have any clue about how to implement it, and suggests that others implement it.

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One of the things that really piss me off is when someone has such a great idea, but doesn't have any clue about how to implement it, and suggests that others implement it.

LOL, I had a chat with Trollson, so here goes:

 

chance = (item.MAX_ITEM_COUNT - item.CURRENT_ITEM_COUNT)/item.MAX_ITEM_COUNT
if(chance > 0)
chance = chance * rand()

 

Example:

chance = (10000 - 9050)/10000
(chance is 0.95, i.e. very high)
is chance > 0?
chance = 0.95 * 1.435362
chance is 0.13635939 (i.e. very low)

 

Probably too basic, but it gives a general idea.

Edited by Placid

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Well, we'll see about that.

I think the EFE prices might even decrease with the next update.

 

Awesome, thanks for the tip! :)

 

Wait... perhaps it's mis-guidance!~

 

Speculative trading is fun!

 

The 'global maximum' value would determine the rarity of an item, which would also need adjustment to ensure fairness, so unless this is changeable at runtime, it would probably need server updates too.

 

What about the players who leave the game?

Their accounts should be pruned after a certain amount of time. Also, storage shouldn't be so guaranteed. Item theft, rotting and perhaps even taxation (yeah i'm British - sue me) should weigh in on Storages, to act as a sink for items. If you have to pay, it means you have to play, which means those who leave would lose their items too...

 

I read a post in the past from ent that pruning is not done because many people come back after a while.

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Placid, that formula is totally worthless without a good MAX_ITEM_COUNT. That is the tricky part, not coming up with formulas on how to use it.

Obviously, if you know that number, you can do the if(total_count>MAX_ITEM_COUNT )return;

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With a "current item count"

 

Simple linear formula:

chance = constant x ( max - current )

Where:

  • chance is the chance of producting the item.
  • constance is some overall rarety factor.
  • max is the maximum number allowed in the game.
  • current is the current number active in the game.

Requires that you track the number of an item present in the game, with whatever allowances are deemed necessary for inactive characters or forgotten hbags. If "forgotten" items reenter the game, then current can exceed max, and no more are produced until some are lost.

 

This puts a (relatively) hard limit on the number in existance. It is simple, and probably sufficient for very hard to produce items.

 

If you prefer, use an exponential decay to determine the chance. This way the actual number are unlimited, but the chance of production gets increasingly small. Typical formula has the form:

 

chance = constant x exp ( max ) x exp ( - current )

Where exp is the exponential function.

 

If we are dealing with very rare items, and the players don't know the number in circulation or the maximum number permitted, and there are items leaving the game, then the simple linear form is sufficient.

 

Without a "current item count"

 

If you cannot determine a reasonable (and it doesnt have to be accurate) count of the number of an item in the game, then you can make an estimate if you count the number of items created in some period, and use a rolling mean:

 

estimate = created x a + estimate x ( 1 - a )

Where:

  • estimate is your replacement for 'current' in the previous formula.
  • created is the number created in the last period.
  • a is some weighting, related to the assumed lifetime of an item.

Then use the estimate in place of the 'current' in the previous formula.

 

Notes:

  1. Probably better off using the exponential form if you only have an estimate of the current count.
  2. You will need to make a guess at a starting value for estimate when the system is set up.

Edited by trollson

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