Jump to content
Eternal Lands Official Forums
milesp

A Change in Success since the Server Move?

Recommended Posts

Just made 83/100 SRS where average success rate is about 90-95% and "normal" food loss. I also made 5/5 manufacturing pots (6 levels over recommended), but went thru 3 feasting potions just ot get them. This is my first try at doing them, so I have no baseline to go from other than recommended level and food loss data.

 

These were all made at MM storage.

 

Question: Is randomness affected by the amount of local/map activity? (ie: 10 persons on a map sitting doing nothing vs. 50 people on a map mining their hearts out)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The theory would depend more on the random function of the server and not the location in game.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Radu himself said he was noticing some tendencies in the logs, and is watching it, as well as requesting numbers from the general EL public to make a determination if there has been a shift in the odds either for better or worse.

 

The tendencies in the logs are based only on two samples, which are slightly outside the previous results range. However, it can be just chance, so unless a lot of people find something unusual, it's most likely just bad luck.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I just finished a small batch of fe's and a few other things that I have stats for since new server.

fe: 1374 successfull

EFE: 1

Crit fails: 5

This is normal for me with artif perk (Side note: I had a dry run BEFORE the new server of 11k fe's with 0 EFE made. Then right after that I made 3 EFE within 1370 fe. Just some numbers to think about since it is highly unlikely to make that many fe without making an EFE with artif perk.)

 

s2e's: 60/60

Steel Longs: 20/20

Both the above are normal

 

I think I have only made one Ti Plate Torso and a pair of Ti Cuisses since new server, both without problems. They can be tricky for me still sometimes so happy they weren't a problem.

 

I have made enough leather helms to make me sick, but I didn't really keep track of fails. Didn't seem out of the ordinary, but the eyes begin to blur a bit after a couple thousand of them :blink:

 

For me, all seems normal.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

All normal here, too.

 

Just DIRECTLY after the migration I failed a lot more often than before (more than twice as much for a while).

Same happened after the last update as well, though.

And no I don't think I was "seeing things".

 

So maybe there is some phenomenon occurring for a while after server restarts? Dunno ...

Edited by Aylott

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If you think in this way:

 

Only people with a lot of failures will post here, people who doesn't notice anything will not post here. So there posted about 5-10 people and not more people so I think it's just bad luck. When you look at those branch topics a lot of people posted there to say the 3% chance isn't right. I think in this case it's just bad luck. I also made sometimes only 50% of the rings I wanted to make, I sometimes failed 4/10 s2e while normally I only fail 1 or 0. And this was on the old server.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Have you made any COLs? If so how many? How many fails?
I've tried. failed 2/2 (with blessing, 5 levels over recommended). CoM I've made 5/7. Something I noticed a long time ago is that there are good days for working, and bad ones... the loss of a couple of crowns was on a day I was in a rush, and I had noticed that I was losing more than usual rings in the temple, tried crowns anyway. I don't have fail rates on the rings though.

on the other hand, I started summoning again yesterday, and it has been a lot easier than it was last time I did it.

going by counters, number of wolf furs in storage now, and earlier, I've sucessfully summoned 91/145. that's with a summon level of 24/25, best I know is wolf rec level 32, so I came out ahead there (I didn't use summon potions, just CoM and conj cape)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Since the update I made over 1k steel bars and didn't notice any difference.

But I've also made some essies and was quite lucky I think:

6 EFEs while making 6k FEs

6 ELEs while making 1.5k LEs

I have the artificer perk of course, but never had as lot of luck :blink:

 

I'll make more FEs soon so I'll see if I'm still so lucky...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Have you made any COLs? If so how many? How many fails?

Perhaps somewhere between 3 and 6 or more. No fails, might have had a CoM in there too. I'll keep track of some rings or other stuff later today and post again with some numbers.

 

Edit:

*) 1k polished sapphires: 8 fails + 1 critical failure, 2 gemstone hammers & chisels

*) 1k polished emeralds: 5 fails + 2 critical failures, 3 gemstone hammers & chisels

*) 1k silver rings: 2 fails + 4 critical fails, 4 ring molds

*) 500 Hurquin rings: 104 fails + 42 critical fails

(enough crafting for a day :blink:)

Edited by Ermabwed

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ok, so it would seem that there are ni out of ordinary problems, besides for some spikes of good or abd luck that can just be attributed to fate.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I got 2 EME out of 250 Magic Ess yesterday morning. This was in the same hour as the 3 CoL fails and 2 bar fails in Riva. Day before I had 51/58 s2e at manu 53. Same day I had 20/22 s2e at manu 53. I don't know if this is out of the ordinary. The 2 EME could just be "luck." But if 50% of EL players have gotten "lucky" or "unlucky" since the server move, that's not "luck" anymore.

 

Cycloonx, the only way to ensure your line of reasoning is correct is to know that every EL player saw this topic. This is only a sample of those who play, and not a representative sample at that, if you're into statistical analysis. But it's a start for Ent and Radu because they wantto hear from players about this.

 

And for those of you so quick to smarm the topic, do a little research before getting so snarky and cynical. The odds in-game are based on generation of random numbers with parameters determined by your levels, what you're making, the EL day, etc. If you know anything about random number generation, you know this is a reasonable thing to investigate, given a new OS on the new server.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hardware_rand...umber_generator

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Random_number_generator

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pseudorandom_number_generator

 

Please post something intelligent, not just "This topic is crud, I am leet, your opinion sucks." Thankyouverymuch.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Please post something intelligent, not just "This topic is crud, I am leet, your opinion sucks." Thankyouverymuch.

 

If you're referring to me, I do know what I'm saying.

In fact I know some of the formulas in the game.

 

And yes, random number generation, but to me this really seems like a case of luck and bad luck as there is not a majority of people posting about changes they seem to notice.

 

Lets put a short example with your CoLs.

 

You got a 75% succes rate, meaning you *should* make 75/100 CoLs. Lets say you make 65 CoLs out of 80. That would, in theory, mean that on the next 20 CoLs, you should fail 10. So you go from a 75%-80% rate on your first 80, to a 50% success rate on your next 20? *BEEP* Wrong answer!

 

I suppose your random generator just put you up with many successes first to let you fail a bit afterwards. :) Nothing special here, move along.

 

And on a final note: This game is here for us to enjoy, not to become one with. Stop getting yourself stressed out on some fails.

 

-Blee

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And on a final note: This game is here for us to enjoy, not to become one with. Stop getting yourself stressed out on some fails.

I really don't think you understood the nature of this post. It wasn't to get stressed over.

 

Many people run into something that doesn't seem right and go straight to the bugs section to make a fuss out of it with out first testing to see if it was in fact a bug or not.

 

In the case of something like this, where the random number generator may be acting different due to a change in the OS, it becomes hard to test it. So the poster was asking if anyone else had noticed similar situations. If so, then Ent and the dev team would have something to look into.

 

As it stands, it appears that there is insufficent evidence of a bug. But that doesn't mean anyone is getting stressed out.

 

In the future, if you have something constructive to add... PLEASE DO. Otherwise, simply ignore the topic.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ok, there might be some truth in the observations

 

The random(4) device has been rewritten to use the Yarrow algorithm. It harvests entropy from a variety of interrupt sources, including the console devices, Ethernet and point-to-point network interfaces, and mass-storage devices. Entropy from the random(4) device is now periodically saved to files in /var/db/entropy, as well as at shutdown time. The semantics of /dev/random have changed; it never blocks waiting for entropy bits but generates a stream of pseudo-random data and now behaves exactly as /dev/urandom.

 

My logs show a slight bias towards certain ranges, which in practice means more rare items, more items breaking, less random days, and various other effects.

 

The effect is pretty minor from what I can tell, but we will be looking to see if we can find some other source of entropy, possibly making our own random number generator.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My logs show a slight bias towards certain ranges

 

I stand corrected. Maybe a good thing this topic was started. Now to see if it has significant impact.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, again, we don't have enough samples of randomness yet (they are calcualted and logged only when the server restarts), so it might just be coincidence. But one thing is clear, the random algorithm is not the one we had on the old server.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have 51 alchemy lvl and failing almost everytime 7 from 100 fe, i think this is unusual...:)(

and i used to make from 30 s2e's about 28 , but now i faild 11:(( i think something is wrong, maybe is only with my luck... i will make more try with the fe's and the s2e's too, and i will post again:D

nice work i as i see it is better this then the old one:) nice job, keep up the good work...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So far, I've tried to keep note of what I've noticed, so, maybe these aren't all completely accurate...

 

Harvesting:

I could have sworn I saw more harv events in one hour's harvests a couple EL days after the increased harv events day, than I saw that entire day... since I didn't keep notes, and since I've also had times that felt like this before, this isn't an accurate statistic.

 

Manu/Alch/Pots/Craft:

I haven't really done these since the server update, I don't think.

 

Summoning:

I attempted to summon 100 rats at level 18 summoning (I have no nexii for higher summons at the moment), and produced about 87 of them, when all was done - this is about usual for me. What seemed off is that I was no-loss failing more often than usual - though I forgot to actually count.

 

Magic:

Only spells I think I've used since the update have been Restoration and Portal Room spell, and once you pass a "no-fail" level on these, there is no random factor to them.

 

Attack/Defense:

Is it just me, or does it seem like some creatures are hitting harder and more often than before the update?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ok, there might be some truth in the observations

 

My logs show a slight bias towards certain ranges, which in practice means more rare items, more items breaking, less random days, and various other effects.

 

The effect is pretty minor from what I can tell, but we will be looking to see if we can find some other source of entropy, possibly making our own random number generator.

 

I did make a modable s2e yesturday. The second I have ever made. I don't know if that means anything or not. Have made 80 s2e's now since new server, still no fails. And this second modable gives me an average of 1 modable in 500-ish s2e's. I have no clue what the chance of making one with artif perk is.

 

On the more items break side, I have not noticed more needles breaking than before, but I have not kept exact records on them. I carry several at a time. One breaks and I keep mixing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On a sidenote: interesting how when an explanation is given as to the purpose of the topic, there is griping and flaming etc, but the moment Entropy posts saying the poster was correct, it stops.

I'd say an apology is due, but I know it's useless to suggest.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ok

 

I have seen some unlucky behaviour! I am manufacture lvl 52 and since the update I have made 70 S2E. Of those 70 I have lost 10 whilst making and had about 3 food failures. I am sure this is higher than previously on losses

 

I know the sample isn't really large enough to determine any real stats but I am surprised that I have lost so many (ps I even used pots which made no difference).

 

Entropy: if you would like some tests run and can provide the ings I will happily make the items and keep stats (either on test if it is same hardware or on live and you can reclainm the items and xp afterwards)

 

Flinto

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×