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nathanstenzel

Too frequent of ingredient loss

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I am at manufacture level 35.

I have lost ingredients 6 times today and made 5 s2e successfully.

Just what on earth are the chances for success/failure/failure-with-ingredient-loss?

The last time, I took a potion of manufacturing and Still lost ingredients.

It seems a little odd that I should lose ingreds so frequently.

Can't the game at least give us a fair chance and reduce our metal bars to ore?

I mean, this is ridiculous.

:ph34r:

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all i can say is, lvl up more, i have lvled alch to the point where i make HE's and MagE's at a 95-99% returnrate, we dont want ppl to be able to make 100% of their trys being only 3 lvl's over the recomended, if u think the market is flooded with items now, imagine what it would b like with alot smaller of a loss rate.

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It's not ridiculous. If you don't want to fail, then increase your level by making lower leveled items.

 

S2E's are level 28 manu. that is 7 under my manu level as it is.

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It's not ridiculous. If you don't want to fail, then increase your level by making lower leveled items.

 

S2E's are level 28 manu. that is 7 under my manu level as it is.

S2E's at level 28 would be a 50% failure rate, so you are only a little bit better.

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It's not ridiculous. If you don't want to fail, then increase your level by making lower leveled items.

 

S2E's are level 28 manu. that is 7 under my manu level as it is.

S2E's at level 28 would be a 50% failure rate, so you are only a little bit better.

So does that mean that 56 manu is almost 100%?

Does anyone know the percentage formulas?

I seem to have over 75% success on Iron Greaves and Iron Cuisses. That is why it seems odd. Of course then, I believe this game sometimes will give you bad odds ruts too. Those days when you can't even make leather helms at 35 manu with more than 75% success rate.

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o was making MgE earlier, at 150/180, at level 35, THAT was infuriating, but you have to ask what can you do?

 

one way to decrease hog loads items going into the market (if fail rates were decreased) is to increase ingreds needed and increase exp per item, increase harvest times for raw ingreds.

 

Thats the problem, people need to make too much to level. Make ingredients harder to come by, and increase exp...

 

One problem is people do not have much money nowadays due to the various cash sinks in game. People do not want to spend what little cash they have, so the market has come to a standstill for items.

 

Stopping the in flow of weopons and manuables from monster drops and increasing gc drops could be a way of evening out gc going in and items coming out of the market.

Edited by pennifuin

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Stopping the in flow of weopons and manuables from monster drops and increasing gc drops could be a way of evening out gc going in and items coming out of the market.

 

 

i actually find that to b a pretty good idea, it would give everone who fights more money and they would have to buy the stuff they need from other players rather than getting them from monster drops.

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Oddly enough .. I have a much better success rate with cooked meat ... ---> SINCE THE UPGRADE <--- than with feasting potions... not sure if this is blind chance (pardon the pun) or a hidden feature of the game designers to slow the production rat of items...

 

on items i manu ... 95% with cooked meat and 50-60% using feast pots ....

 

alch seems unaffected by the two food sources for me anyway ,,, but my alch is twice my manu level

 

 

?? please add you experiences vis a vis this comment ??

 

 

... someone may have coded a disability against feasting pots .... unless this is <<add pun here>>

Edited by Ikaris

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One problem is people do not have much money nowadays due to the various cash sinks in game.

 

There is demand on market... make tons of Air, Energy or Health Essence, they will be gone in no time (don't advertise your Energy Essence on market channel, pm me :dry:)

 

On topic: I have more critical failures on Water Essence than on Magic Essence :huh:

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Oddly enough .. I have a much better success rate with cooked meat ... ---> SINCE THE UPGRADE <--- than with feasting potions... not sure if this is blind chance (pardon the pun) or a hidden feature of the game designers to slow the production rat of items...

 

on items i manu ... 95% with cooked meat and 50-60% using feast pots ....

 

alch seems unaffected by the two food sources for me anyway ,,, but my alch is twice my manu level

 

 

?? please add you experiences vis a vis this comment ??

 

 

... someone may have coded a disability against feasting pots .... unless this is <<add pun here>>

I'm not sure about this but I heard that you have a higher chance (very small bit) on success if your food level is high. So when using cooked meat, you probably use it when you food is arround 20. Feasting potions are only used below 0. If you do it like this, cooked meat can make a little difference in the positive way I guess.

Or you were just (un)lucky

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When I was passing through the recommended levels for various items, for items created in bulk (essence and levelling items), I was seeing a pretty consistant 75% yield; which I believe corresponded to 50% success rate with 50% of failures losing ingredients (ie, 25% loss of ingredients). Higher level items tend not to be made in sufficent quantities to get accurate statistics.

 

A success rate to 50% is a likely definition of the recommended rate (thats 50% success, not 50% yield or ingredient loss!).

 

This says nothing about the shape of the curve of success and loss against level, or how skill level and recommended level interact (is it proportional or absolute difference, or something else?), or whether all items would follow the same type of curve.

But really, it is better that we don't know these things in such detail.

Edited by trollson

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But really, it is better that we don't know these things in such detail.

I got to say that I'm interested in them from a mathematical point of view to optimize my playing.

 

Edit: Would be fun to know the odds for loosing/failing k of n items w/ recommended level of l, then you could say "whoa, that was more unlikely than a shark falling on my head in downtown tokio" or something like that :icon13:

Edited by Ermabwed

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It's not ridiculous. If you don't want to fail, then increase your level by making lower leveled items.

 

S2E's are level 28 manu. that is 7 under my manu level as it is.

S2E's at level 28 would be a 50% failure rate, so you are only a little bit better.

So does that mean that 56 manu is almost 100%?

Does anyone know the percentage formulas?

I seem to have over 75% success on Iron Greaves and Iron Cuisses. That is why it seems odd. Of course then, I believe this game sometimes will give you bad odds ruts too. Those days when you can't even make leather helms at 35 manu with more than 75% success rate.

 

I am at manu lvl 56. We did a 500 s2e project just before the update for the hydro ore. When I started making the s2e's I was at lvl 55. I had enough bars and supplies for 520 s2e's. I used 14 manu pots during this session and gained a manu lvl about 200 or so s2e's into it. In the end I only had 498 s2e's successfully made and had to churn out more bars to get us to 502. So no, at lvl 56 you don't have a 100% success rate, but it wasn't bad in my opinion.

 

On a side note but still on topic. I was in NC storage one day and I heard LochnessLobster saying that he crit failed on leather pants. I don't think you ever have 100% success rate consistantly on any item.

 

EDIT: typos

Edited by CelticLady

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Correct, there is no such things as Never-Fail, but it can seem like it.

 

Err.... FEs and Bone Powders? :P

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Correct, there is no such things as Never-Fail, but it can seem like it.

 

Err.... FEs and Bone Powders? :P

FE's can fail.

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Correct, there is no such things as Never-Fail, but it can seem like it.

 

Err.... FEs and Bone Powders? :P

FE's can fail.

 

Oh... :omg:

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Correct, there is no such things as Never-Fail, but it can seem like it.

 

Err.... FEs and Bone Powders? :P

FE's can fail.

i have never and dont know anyone who has ever lost the ing to FE's.

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Correct, there is no such things as Never-Fail, but it can seem like it.

 

Err.... FEs and Bone Powders? :P

FE's can fail.

 

no they cant

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I think the recommended levels should be upped a little. It should be more at the 70% sucess rate.

 

I've never failed a FE neither, and I've made roughly 15K. :)

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Manu skill in and of itself seems to have high fail rate's for me. Especially Leather items :ph34r:

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